A system dynamics laboratory for regional analysis : the Bicol River Basin development | |
| Author | Wadhwa, Lal Chand |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.D21 |
| Subject(s) | Regional planning--Philippines Cities and towns--Planning--Philippines Economic development--Mathematical models |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This dissertation represents a portion of a USAID Sponsored research project for developing a computer simulation model for systems planning and analysis of the Bicol River Basin in the Philippines. The model developed in this research is distinguished by its content, flexibility, and the level of disaggregation. It is an operative, interac- tive, dynamic,digital computer model that can simulate regional development with reapect to the interfaces of agriculture, industry, water resources, transportation, education, health, population growth, and urban deveIOpment. The model considers the spatial sapects to the extent that urban and rural areas are treated separately. Although specifically formulated for the Bicol River Basin Development, the model can be applied to similar economically depressed regiOns with some modifications. The Bicol River Basin Simulation Model is believed to be one of the most camprehensive system dynamics models of a real-world regional development effort ever attempted. It is capable of evaluating a wide range of policies based on economic, social, technological, and institutional alternatives in any sector. Specifically six different policies have been examined in this research to demonstrate that the model serves as a powerful laboratory for regional analysis and planning. These policies include accelerating or decelerating land reform, allocating special funds to feeder road construc- tion, providing additional credits for crop production, removing support for the family planning program, and stimulating export demand in agro—based industries. The likely impact of each policy has been projected over a 30-year period as reflected in selected output variables which are believed to be adequate indicators of various facets of development. The policy of accelerating land reform shows increases in crap production, pepulation, and the proportion of the labor force in agriculture. However, the effect on other output variables is insignificant except for some readjust— ment in urban and rural incomes. Providing a special fund of 60 million pesos over three years for feeder road construction helps in increasing agricultural production but the consequences of a special credit policy for cr0p production are not encouraging. Some adverse effects on per capita incomes, population growth, and employ- ment are exhibited when the model is run with the support for family planning withdrawn. The outdmigration from the region increases; hence the actual extent of adverse effects is not manifested in the output variables. Stimulating export demand in agro-based industries has produced some encouraging changes based on indicators of regional development chosen. The value of output in both agriculture and industry increases, the employment structure shows favorable shifts, unemployment, and outsmigration are reduced, per capita incomes rise, and the urban pOpulation increases faster than the rural population. The out-migration from the region also decreases. The (1V)results of these and many other policies that can be tested using this model are valuable guides to formulating policies and making rational choices amongst available alternatives while the Options are still Open. Although it is believed that this research represents an important mile- stone in regional planning models, it is by no means a finished product. Since development planning is a continuous process, much can be gained by keeping the model Operative and continually updated with respect to changing Conditions, reoriented objectives, better data, and increased knowledge. |
| Year | 1975 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. D21 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | AIT Publication (Year <=1978) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Dissertation (D) (Year <=1978) |
| Chairperson(s) | Drew, Donald R. |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1975 |