| Abstract | This dissertation presents a system dynamics model of the industrial development‘of the Bicol River Basin Region in the Philippines. The model is dynamic, interactive and operatiOnal, and can simulate regional develop— ment with respect to the interfaces of agriculture, industry, infrastructure, population growth, capital, and employment and income. The intent is to view regional industrial development as a subprocess of the multi- phenomenon of regional development, to formulate a model which can be used to simulate policies in many related problem areas, and to evaluate their effects on the industrial development of the region. The simulation model is comprised of seven modular sectors which are interrelated through a series of direct and indirect feedback loops. These sectors are agriculture, industry, infrastructure, social overhead, population, capital, and employment, wages, and income. In the agricul- tural sector, the development strategy includes such programs as land reform, compact farm development, and farm mechanization, as well as such concepts as land productivity, annual and perennial crOp production, and the production of, and demand for, livestock, poultry, and fish -- all marketed under a purely competitive market mechanism. The forestry component of the agricultural sector includes soft and hard wood production from pulp‘making and commercial and non—commercial virgin forests. The industrial sector includes three basic types of activities -- mining, manufacturing, and household and business services -- divided into eight industry groups; namely, non—metal mining, metal mining, agro— based industries, non-metal processing, metal processing, and durable fabrication industries. Each of the industry groups is modeled separately with consideration given to the interrelationships and feedbacks among the industry groups. The basic structure of the models of the different industry groups are built around the concept of production capacities and demand for their products. The export-oriented industries which eXport their products from the region have two components of demand -— local demand and export demand. The local demand for the products of any industry group depends upon the requirements of other industries, which use its products as inputs, and final consumption by the regional popula- tion. The export demand of an export-oriented industry group depends upon its cost characteristics and the degree of the region's ability to reduce the costs of production as compared to other regions. The local- serving industry groups meet only the local demand for their goods or services. The various production capacities depend upon the available capital in the industry groups. The infrastructural sector includes such water-related activities as water supply, irrigation, and flood control in addition to such other infrastructural services as electrical energy, recreation, housing, and transportation. Social services such as education, health, and family planning are modeled in what is referred to as the social overhead sector. |