| Abstract |
This study uses simulation techniques to find out an acceptable
operation policy under fixed system parameters for a multipurpose,
multiunit water resource system. A solution is sought for two crucial
design parameters encountered in a multipurpose water resource system; design inflow sequences and the conflicting interests of different sectors.An objective concept has been introduced to synthesize a design inflow sequence for a certain value of exceeding probability. Each inflowof this sequence is derived from its population and corresponds to the same exceeding probability. For a multipurpose multiunit water resource system, a design inflow
sequence and a sector of priority lead to a unique operation policy (a
rule curve for each reservoir). With a suitable method for the estimation of the future natural inflows, the results of the simulation of the operation may be obtained for each operation policy. Such monetary and materialsbased results may help in the selection of the most acceptable operation policy.To simulate the operation of a water resource system more closely, the future natural inflows should not be assumed known. This study does not assume the natural inflows to be known before they are supposed to occur.Methods to get conservative estimates of the future inflows are proposed.
To check the applicability of this approach for the formulation
of the operation policy for a multipurpose water resource system, the
Indus Basin was used for the case study. The Indus Basin is one of the most complex water resource systems of the world and consists of 2 main reservoirs,l7 headworks, l2 link canals and a network of irrigation canals. The design parameters in this study consist of the exceeding probability for the design inflow sequence, sector of priority and the mode of estimating the future natural inflows. This study uses four values of exceeding probability for the design inflow sequence, two sectors of priority and two modes of estimating the future natural inflows. While comparing the results of the simulation for the decision of the most acceptable operation policy, the importance of the materials—based results is recognized. The materials—based results give insight to the system and present the breakdown of the total output over time and space. Such breakdown also helps in the decision of an operation policy which would be economically, socially and politically acceptable.Considering all these factors, an operation policy for the Indus Basin is suggested. |