Development of the decision support tool for regional climate change impact assessment, trend analysis and hydrologic modeling | |
| Author | Ullah, Kifayat |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.CS-13-03 |
| Subject(s) | Decision support systems Climatic changes Hydrologic models |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Science, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. CS-13-03 |
| Abstract | The main objective of this study is the development of a decision support tool to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources. The specific objectives include a stand - alone computer application where the user can obtain the data f or different General Circulation Models, analysis of past trends in hydro - climatic variables, selection of suitable General Circulation Model, and effect of future climate on stream flow. For trend analysis a module is embedded in the tool, combining the non - parametric statistical approaches for detection and estimation of trends in the hydro - meteorological data. In this module the non - parametric Mann - Kendall test is used for detection of the trend, and to estimate magnitude of the trend the nonparametric Sen‘s method is used. For demonstration of the tool the long term (1961 - 1990) trends of temperature and precipitation are calculated for four meteorological stations in upper Jhelum basin, Pakistan. In case of annual precipitation one station has shown a significant increasing trend at the rate of 12.9 mm per 30 years. Two stations have shown a non - significant increasing trend, while a non - significant decreasing trend is noted in one station. For annual maximum temperature two stations have revealed a s ignificant increasing trend with p - value less than 0.1, where one station has shown an increasing trend with p - value 0.85 which is not statistically significant. For one station a significant decreasing trend is observed with p - value 0.0001. In case of annual minimum temperature three out of four stations have shown a significant decreasing trend with p - value less than 0.1. One station has shown a significant increasing trend at the rate of 0.04 C per 30 years. For mean annual temperature two stations with high elevation have shown an increasing trend while the other two stations with lower elevation have shown a decrea sing trend. For climate change assessment another module is embedded in the tool. The developed module has the capability to select a suitable GCM for any specific region, using the statistical parameters e.g. root mean square error and coefficient of de termination. The module also provides the facility to obtain the simulated data for different GCMs in the excel format. Delta change method is incorporated as a downscaling method to project future climate scenarios. To demonstrate the application of the t ool, future air surface temperature and precipitation scenarios are projected for 2021 - 2050, using data for four meteorological stations from upper Jhelum basin, Pakistan. The GCMs showed good results while simulating the spatial variability of mean temp erature. Every model had responded with a high value of R 2 (0.91 - 0.96), suggesting that they were accurate at representing the spatial pattern of variation. But all the models substantially underestimated the magnitude of monthly temperature for the perio d 1961 - 1990 Every GCM model showed higher variations for precipitation than those for mean temperature. On the basis of similar statistics of the observed and simulated time series, the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3 is selected for prediction of clima te in the upper Jhelum basin for the period 2021 - 2050. The projected mean annual temperature across the area varies from 1.6 to 1.9 °C, where as an increase of 2 to 10% is projected in annual precipitation. Moreover, for hydrologic modeling, another module is being embedded in the tool using Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS - CN) method. |
| Year | 2013 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. CS-13-03 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Computer Science (CS) |
| Chairperson(s) | Guha, Sumanta ;Shrestha, Sangam (Co-Chairperson); |
| Examination Committee(s) | Sharif, Muhammad ;Kazama, So; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2013 |