| Author | Permadi, Didin Agustian |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.EV-13-03 |
| Subject(s) | Air quality--Evaluation--Southeast Asia
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| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering in Environmental Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. EV-13-03 |
| Abstract | This study examined the impacts of current and future emission scenarios on air quality and climate forcing using the WRF/CHIMERE modeling system. It aimed at quantification of the co-benefits of various BC emission reduction measures on climate and air quality. An emission inventory for the base year of 2007 was firstly conducted for Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia while for the other countries the data were taken from the available on-line resources. Two emission scenarios were developed; the first scenario (BAU2030) assumed business as usual projection while the second scenario aimed at BC emission reduction in 2030 for four sectors i.e. biomass open burning, residential, transport and industry. The model was run on the domain extended from Southern China (24ºN, 95ºE) to Eastern Indonesia (-9ºS, 137ºW) covering 169 x 133 cells with a resolution of 0.25º. Boundary conditions were taken from the LMDZ/INCA global chemistry transport model for both base year and future year 2030. Evaluation was performed for hourly WRF and WRF/CHIMERE using 8 WMO meteorological stations and 9 air quality monitoring stations available in the domain. Optical properties such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) were calculated using AODEM while a simple routine was developed based on radiation transfer equation to estimate aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF). Total estimated BC emissions in 2007 of Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia were 160, 47, and 7 Gg/year while for the total domain were 345 Gg/year. Under the BAU2030 emission scenario, annual BC emission increased by around 40% and 63% for Indonesia and Thailand while under the RED2030, BC reductions were 44 and 51%, respectively. Model evaluation for the meteorological parameters showed that wind speed was the critical parameter while temperature and relative humidity showed relatively better performance. Modeled BC, PM10, PM2.5 and O3 showed underestimate results which may be due to the coarse resolution of modeling output which are grid average as compared to single point observation. The simulated highest hourly maximum concentration of BC in 2007 in the domain was around 39 μg/m3 while the highest monthly average ranged within 16-21 μg/m3 observed in March and April. The highest monthly average of BC AOD with the assumption of internal mixing was 0.08 in April followed by Jan (0.039) and Feb (0.034). Monthly average BC DRF ranged within 0.39-2.3 W/m2 for the base year of 2007. The maximum BC DRF values over the domain ranged between 1.9 – 6.5 W/m2 under the BAU2030 scenario while the range of 0.7 – 5.5 W/m2 was obtained under the RED2030 scenario. Global warming potential (GWP) estimated under the BAU2030 increased from 2007 by around 3 times for 20 year horizon and 2.2 times for 100 year horizon. Under the RED2030, the GWP reduction was around 7% as compared to the BAU2030. Under the BAU2030 the domain maximum monthly average of the BC DRF would increase as compared to 2007 by around 1.5 – 5.5 W/m2 while under the RED2030 scenario there was a reduction of between 0.7 -3.5 W/m2 as compared to the BAU2030. Under the BAU the total number of additional cases of mortality in the domain in 2030 was around 32 cases/100,000 of population while for Indonesia and Thailand were 26/100,000 and 23/100,000 of population. If the RED2030 was implemented, the total avoided number of mortality cases would be 63 cases/100,000 of population over the domain while for Indonesia and Thailand were 58/100,000 and 41/100,000 of population. Co-benefits of the mitigation measures implemented under the RED2030 on air quality and climate forcing were found to be significant. ivEmission input data should be updated for other countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar, Malaysia and Philippines to represent better the regional emissions as well as for emission reduction scenario development. Co-benefit analysis of each emission source sector measures would be very useful particularly to provide scientific information for policy makers to formulate co-control policy. Future crop effects of O3 should be further incorporated as most of the countries in the region are agriculture-economy based country. To investigate BC DRF at the TOA and surface and its effect on temperature, on-line coupled model of meteorology and chemistry should be further used |
| Year | 2013 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. EV-13-03 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Environmental Engineering (EV) |
| Chairperson(s) | Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh |
| Examination Committee(s) | Thammarat Koottatep ;Shrestha, Rajendra Prasad ;Rupakheti, Maheswar ;Vautard, Robert |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of France ;Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2013 |