Drought assessments, impacts and farmers' coping mechanism in Balochistan | |
| Author | Ashraf, Muhammad |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.RD-14-01 |
| Subject(s) | Droughts--Evaluation--Pakistan--Balochistan Agriculture--Effect of drought on--Pakistan--Balochistan |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Regional and Rural Development Planning |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. RD-14-01 |
| Abstract | Drought is one of the major threats among all natural hazards to people‘s livelihoods and socio - economic development. Balochistan is prone to dr ought and has been impacted severely during 1998 - 2002. The people are engaged in orchard and livestock farming activities for earning their livelihoods. Provincial economy of Balochistan mainly depends on agriculture and livestock sectors, which accounts f or more than 50 percent of the GDP and employs about 67 percent of the labor force. Majority of the population (85 percent) lives in rural areas and agriculture is their main source of income in the province. Agriculture is more vulnerable to drought impac ts because of high dependency on natural resources and it becomes difficult for the agriculture dependent communities to regain and normalize their livelihood even after drought. Moreover, poor farm households are more vulnerable to drought hazard because of their limited ability to cope and adapt with the situation. Therefore, this dissertation has attempted to assess the spatio - temporal characteristics of drought in order to identify drought prone areas and to examine the local communities‘ exposure to d rought. It has also focused on orchard farmers‘ perception and their understanding about the extreme situation of drought along with drought induced impacts on their agro - based practices and how they cope with difficult situation and finally suggests strat egies for agriculture and disaster management to formulate policies and extend relevant services in order to facilitate farmers in sustaining their livelihood against drought in the future. This dissertation is based on both secondary and primary sources o f data collected from 215 farm households following a structured questionnaire survey. At macro level analysis, Balochistan province is taken as the study area while district Pishin, prone to drought and severely affected during the recent drought, is take n as the study area for micro level analysis. This research is the combination of both descriptive as well as inferential statistics based on primary and secondary data and information. The results indicate that negative trends in precipitation are eviden t both at annual and seasonal scale for more than 70 percent of the stations in Balochistan ranging from 137.2 mm to 283.4 mm over last 36 years. Furthermore, frequency of severe and extreme droughts is higher in north - west, from central parts towards sout h, south - east and some coastal areas when analyzed quarterly at (3 - month winter season) and annually for 12 - month (dry - wet periods). While central - eastern, south - western, southern and some isolated coastal areas in the south are very prone to severe drough t in future particularly during winter and dry - wet periods because of high variability in precipitation in these areas. Micro level analysis indicates that farmers were well aware about basic climate and drought issues. Their perception regarding climatic variability and drought are in conformity with the results obtained through analyzing climatic data over a period of 36 years. In addition, deficiency in rainfall over the last decade resulted in production decline of major fruits, while proportionate los ses of fruits production and livestock are higher among the marginal and poorer farmers. Farmers have shown considerable fortitude in coping with the impacts of drought and thus adapted a number of techniques and practices at bot h on - farm and off - farm leve ls that include crop diversification and mixed cropping, adjustment in agricultural inputs, water management, seeking off - farm employment, assets depletion, consumption smoothing, borrowing, and migrating to other places for alternative sources of income. Empirically, it is depicted that landholding, annual income, livestock ownership, credit access, farmer - to - farmer extension, GO s /NGOs support increases the probability of farmers‘ decision to cope and adapt better with drought hazard. iv This dissertation ha s added to the literature in the field of drought hazard particularly in the context of Balochistan. It contributes for establishing the drought prone areas of Balochistan presented through maps. Findings of this study are consistent with existing literatu re on drought and may be effective and useful in mitigating and combating drought at different level in the country because of the little or no research on drought in the country. Moreover this dissertation may help administrators, planners, extension offi cials and NGOs to formulate policies and extend effective services in order to facilitate farmers in sustaining their livelihood against the drought now and in future. |
| Year | 2014 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. RD-14-01 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Development and Sustainability (DDS) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Rural Development, Gender and Resources (RD) |
| Chairperson(s) | Routray, Jayant Kumar |
| Examination Committee(s) | Thapa, Gopal Bahadur ;Shrestha, Sangam |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | University of Balochistan (UOB) , Quetta, Pakistan ;Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph. D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014 |