Assessment of climate change and land use change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Bago River Basin in Myanmar | |
| Author | Aung Ye Htut |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.WM-15-02 |
| Subject(s) | Land use--Evaluation--Myanmar--Bago River Basin Climatic changes--Evaluation--Myanmar--Bago River Basin Water resources--Evaluation--Myanmar--Bago River Basin |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for thedegree of Doctor of EngineeringinWater Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. WM-15-02 |
| Abstract | Climate change together with land use change affects the hydrological cycle which alters river discharge and water availability. The Bago River Basin has been identified as a vulnerable basin to climate change due to its low adaptive capacity and therefore calls for assessment of climate change impacts on water resources to formulate appropriate adaptation strategies. Thus this study aims to assess the impacts of climate change and land use change on hydrology and water resources of the Bago River Basin in Myanmar. In this study a quantitative research approach, including use of hydrological models, was adopted in projecting climate change scenarios and analyzing the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on hydrology and water resources of the basin. All the data needed in this study were based on secondary data. Global future climate data of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from six General Circulation Models (GCMs) were bias corrected using the delta change approach to construct climate change scenarios for the whole basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the monthly, seasonal, and annualstream flow changes for future periods due to the impacts of climate and land use changes in the Bago River Basin. Land cover and land use changes in the basin from 2001 to 2010 were used to analyze the hydrological responses of the watershed in the past.The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model was used to simulate the land use conditions for 2025 which was in turn used in the SWAT model for assessment of both climate and land use changes impacts on stream flow ofthe basin for the 2020s period.Results show that the combined impacts of climate and land use change scenarios can increase the annual stream flow by 62% to 68% during the 2020s.Out of this climate change is responsible for 46% to 53% of the increase. The winter season flow in 2020s period can get altered by +130% to 160% due to the combined impacts in the whole basin. The seasonal temperature and precipitation changes are found to be significant in winter for the whole basin. April is found to be the hottest month with the mean temperature of 39 ̊C and September for heaviest monthly precipitation with 930 mm rainfall. The monthly stream flows are found to be increasing from May to September reaching maximum change in September by an increase of approximately 83% in the whole basin during the period 2010 to 2099. The uncertainty for mean temperature change is found to be within a range of +2.9 ̊C and +3.8 ̊C annually and the annual precipitation shows the changes with a range of +420 mm and +600 mm for the future period of 2010-2099 in the whole basin. For annual stream flow change, the uncertainty range is found to be a range of +300 m3/s and +350 m3/s for the whole basin across 2010 to 2099 under both scenarios. This research is first of its kind in Myanmar and the results can be useful to understand the potential impact of climate change and formulate adaptation strategies to offset the negative and harness the positive impacts of climate change in the basin |
| Year | 2015 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. WM-15-02 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Vilas Nitivattananon ;Kawasaki, kiyuki; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway; |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph. D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2015 |