Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and hydropower generation in Belu River Basin of Myanmar | |
| Author | Minn Thu Aung |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.WM-16-02 |
| Subject(s) | Hydrology--Myanmar--Belu River Basin Climatic change--Myanmar--Belu River Basin |
| Note | A dissertationsubmitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. WM-16-02 |
| Abstract | Myanmar is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Asia and Pacificregion because of its higher exposure to temperature and precipitation change and its loweradaptive capacity. In addition to several potential impacts of climate change, impacts onhydrology and hydropower generation is considered as very important as the hydropowersector is responsible for more than 75% of Myanmar’s electric power generation. Therefore,theunderstanding of climate change and its impact on hydrology and hydropower generationis crucial for sustainable development and management of hydropower sector in Myanmar.The present study aims at quantifying the potential impact of climate change onhydrologyand hydropower generation in Belu River Basin of Myanmar. Firstly, the future climatechange scenarios of the basin was generated using the outputs of General Circulation Models(GCMs); secondly these climate change scenarios were fed into a hydrological model, Soiland Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to simulate the reservoir inflows and finally aHydrologic Engineering Center–The Reservoir System Simulation (HEC-ResSim) modelwas used to simulate the changes in hydropower production.A total often General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to project the future climatescenarios of the basin covering three periods: 2020s (2010-2039), 2050s (2040-2069) and2080s (2070-2099) with a baseline period of 1976–2005. Quantile mapping bias correctionmethod was applied for future climate projection under all Representative ConcentrationPathways (RCP) scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.According to the medianensemble projections of GCMs, it is observed that both the minimum and maximumtemperature of the basin is projected to increase in future. The basin will witness the increaseof minimum and maximum temperature in the range of 0.64–5.27 ̊C and 0.56–2.81 ̊C,respectively by 2100.The majority of GCMs, based on medianensemble,projected an increase in average annualprecipitation under all the RCP scenarios except for RCP2.6 in 2080s. The maximumincrease in annual precipitation is found upto 9.14% under RCP8.5 in 2080s. However thebasin will experience a maximum decrease of average annual precipitation by 1.78% underRCP2.6 in 2080s. It is observedthat the monsoon (June–October) season is getting wetter infuture. More rain concentrating over shorter time span suggests the likely increase in extremeprecipitation events. The highest rate of increase in rainfall is generally observed in Augustundermost of the RCP scenarios.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated with satisfying modelperformance and the model was used to simulate the changes in future inflows into theMobye reservoir under all climate change scenarios. Under different climate change scenariosthe inflowsfrom the main Belu Riverinto the Mobye reservoir is projected to increase in therange of22.33–82.56% leading to increase in the total available water storagewaterfrom45.24% to 109.31%by 2100.The Mobye reservoir is modelled with Hydrologic Engineering Center–The ReservoirSystem Simulation (HEC-ResSim) to simulate the water supply for the irrigation, householdwater supply and hydropower generation. With the priority consideration on hydropowerproduction, the climate change impact on hydropower generation under different climatechange scenarios was projected in future. Under all climate change scenario the simulationwith median ensemble of inflows, all three hydropower stations: Lawpita 1, Lawpita 2 and ivLawpita 3 stations are met with required inflows and under fully operation for hydropowergeneration. Therefore thenegativeimpact on hydropower generation was not observed.However, under the lowestbound of uncertainty (10 percentile) of inflowsdue to RCP 2.6scenario, the hydropower generation was projected to reduceup to29.19%,35.34% and41.48% in Lawpita 1, Lawpita 2 and Lawpita 3 stations respectively in future.At the sametime hydropower production can be increased in the range of 3-17% fromall the stationssince the available water storage in reservoir is projected to increase in future.The results of this study will be very useful for decision makers and other stakeholders toformulate suitable adaptation strategies to harness the positive impacts and offset the negativeimpacts of climate change on hydrology and hydropower production in Belu River Basin. |
| Year | 2016 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. WM-16-02 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Sutat Weesakul ;Singh, Jai Govind; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs(NMFA), Norway; |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph. D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2016 |