Application of time series forecasting methods for policy purposes on natural rubber prices and production in Thailand | |
| Author | Chananya Thimaporn |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no.AE-09-01 |
| Subject(s) | Rubber--Prices--Government policy--Thailand Rubber industry and trade--Thailand |
| Note | Research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Agricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Research studies project report ; no. AE-09-01 |
| Abstract | Price fluctuation has always been a major problem of natural rubber, one of the most important agricultural commodities in Thailand. This study aimed to evaluate the most appropriate model and its components for forecasting natural rubber prices at farm in Thailand both on daily and monthly basis. Time series of daily and monthly natural rubber prices were applied to a variety of forecasting techniques namely, Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method, Box-Jenkins methodology (ARIMA), and Combining forecast with Regression technique. It was found that the forecasted results are most accurate when the combining with regression technique is employed. Furthermore the random size of observation and various prediction intervals were also taken into consideration in order to determine the best-fitted size and range that generate minimum errors. In this research, the selected accuracy measure was the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). It is found that the most appropriate range of data used for the daily RSS3 prices forecast is lOO-observations, whereas that of monthly data appears to be 84-observations. The best forecasting time-interval in which the selected techniques can provide the most accurate result is the shortest interval for both daily and monthly prices. However, due to the ease of use, Holt-Winters is recommended rather than ARIMA, which requires high statistically experience. In addition to numerical part, the former and current policies on natural rubber prices and production implemented by Thai government were also examined. It is interesting to point out that price intervention is always the option for any Thai government when natural rubber prices declined. However, it is recommended that the intervention should be done in a short period of time, to urgently help Thai rubber growers and avoid problems concerning market mechanism in long-run. This research methodology is not only applicable to the natural rubber prices but any other commodity as appropriate. |
| Year | 2009 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. AE-09-01 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources (Former title: Department of Food Agriculture, and BioResources (DFAB)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Agricultural and Food Engineering (AE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Jayasuriya, Hemantha P. J. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Salokhe, Vilas M.;Shivakoti, Ganesh P. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Royal Thai Government Fellowship |
| Degree | Research studies project report (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2009 |