1 AIT Asian Institute of Technology

Can we turn off the bubble machine? : a certain application of economic cycles theories to the financial bubbles

AuthorJulien, Cosme
Call NumberAIT RSPR no.SM-10-08
Subject(s)Financial crises

Note82 leaves : ill.
PublisherAsian Institute of Technology
Series StatementResearch studies project report ; no. SM-10-08
Abstract“In Girum Imus Nocte et Consumimur Igni”; which means in English, “we go round in circle by night and we are consumed by fire”. Latin had a tragic vision of humanity lead by an unavoidable perpetual return. Their perception of History, political regimes, civilisation was driven by this idea. Two thousands year after, what the Roman used to call destiny which you could not fight with, still exists. The idea of business cycle or Economic cycle implies that a part of the economy is out of control. No policies, organisations or governments can stop this trend. There are two ways of facing this issue, either to cope with it, or to analyse and anticipate it. The concept of economic cycle is more than one and a half century old and its first appearances in the economic literature correspond more or less with the spread of capitalism over the world. In our current time business cycles tend to be more and morelinked to financial markets. Another key phenomenon that capitalism addressed to our societies was the one of speculative bubbles; when greediness overcomes senses of reality. In the same time it would be too simple to complain about economic bubbles and to accuse markets actors of lacking wisdom. First –and overall- the best way to discover a financial bubble is to wait for it to burst; a too-late-strategy that is not very relevant. Secondly, financialbubbles, before bursting, are just investments in a profitable sector, the first principle of capitalism. Before they burst, financial bubbles also have positive outcomes; with the dot-com bubble, the access to the internet spread in average ten times faster than a comparable innovation such as the telephone.The purpose of this paper is to study financial –or speculative- bubbles through the prism of economic cycle theories, to find some analogies, and to anticipate them. One will see that financial bubbles are linked among themselves, and often that the new one is just a consequence of the previous one-s. Having analysed these phenomena, an application to the current house bubble will be done; and three main topics will be highlighted as the next possible crises: Chinese economy, Green Development, and Agricultural Commodities. For each of these topics, an analysis of the “contagion” will be done and some ways of hedging will be proposed.“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man”
Year2010
Corresponding Series Added EntryAsian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. SM-10-08
TypeResearch Study Project Report (RSPR)
SchoolSchool of Management (SOM)
DepartmentOther Field of Studies (No Department)
Academic Program/FoSMaster of Business Administration (MBA) (Publication code=SM)
Chairperson(s)Badir, Yuosre
Examination Committee(s)Winai Wongsurawat;Donyaprueth Kairit
DegreeResearch Studies Project Report (M.B.A.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2010


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