| Author | Jayathilaka, P. M. S. |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.AE-10-05 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Geographid information system
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| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for thedegree of Master of Engineering inAgricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. AE-10-05 |
| Abstract | Global warming is growing concern in this century. Green house gases cause to global warming that makes foremost global climatic changes. It is imperative to identify the effects of climate change in agricultural growing areas in terms of the water demand, crop suitability and production in every agro ecological region. Plantation sector plays important role in Sri Lankan economy by providing livelihoods and earning foreign exchange. Main agricultural land usage include paddy (27%) and major plantation crops (24%). The sector provides employment to about 1.5 million persons and contributed 23% to agricultural production in 2008. The study of climate change and assessment of its consequences are one of the long felt timely needs.This study focuses on evaluation of the effects of climate change on major plantation crops (tea, rubber and coconut) in Sri Lanka, creates GIS maps of spatial and temporal changes in crop suitability and production potentials. This study used secondary data from various sources based on agro ecological zones during the period of 1980-2007. Land use and agro ecological maps, meteorological and crop yield data and some soil characteristics were also used. Researchers and academic experts of the plantation sector were interviewed to acquire primary data. Climatic and soil data were used to parameterize the tea, rubber and coconut yield models to get simulated yield forecast. Spatial data and attribute information were incorporated in GIS environment to generate spatial maps of climatic parameters and actual crop yield. Crop suitability maps were generated amalgamating yield maps and climatic factors maps by using multi criteria analysis under two time frames, which are 1980-1992 and 1993-2007. The suitability maps of two time frames were compared to identify the temporal changes of each crop using ArcGIS. Dynamics of different climatic parameters and crop yield using GIS maps was identified. Geographic shift of suitability classes were measured. The crop production loss or gain was identified using economic analysis. Crop yield data of two time frames were compared and simulated and actual yield data were tested to identify correlation.The crop suitability model was developed for tea, rubber and coconut using AHP in mult i criteria analysis. The percentage changed in crop suitability was identified based on five suitability classes dur ing two time frames. High suitabi lit y tea crop cover shifted 11.29 km fro m it s origina l centroid. Moderately suitable area of rubber expanded into suitable area and shifted 8.29 km to North East. Suitable and moderately suitable coconut crop cover expanded and moved 6.43 km at North and 9.80 km at South-West. The highest average annual production loss of tea (219 kg/ha/yr) was recorded in WM AEZ zone while WL (68 kg/ha/yr) and IU (162 kg/ha/yr) AEZ zones record loss during 1981-2007 period. Both WM (79 kg/ha/yr) and WL (82 kg/ha/yr) AEZs have recorded average annual rubber production gain at same period. The average annual coconut production showed 446nuts/acre/yr gains in IL3 AEZ zone. The tea yield was significantly different in both WM and IU. Rubber yield in WL has shown significant rise between two time frames. Sixt y two rain gauges were analyzed. Long term annual rainfall values of WM showed significant declining trends. The ANCP coconut model data has showed significantly high correlation (0.73) with actual data. The model and actual tea yield have shown moderate correlations in WM (0.55) and IU (0.47) zones. The model and actual rubber yield showed correlation (0.69) in WL. It became abundantly clear that climate and yield could be meaningfully related to the crop suitability. |
| Year | 2010 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. AE-10-05 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources (Former title: Department of Food Agriculture, and BioResources (DFAB)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Agricultural and Food Engineering (AE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Soni, Peeyush |
| Examination Committee(s) | Perret, Sylvain R.;Shrestha Rajendra P. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2010 |