Projected changes in climate extremes over North Thailand | |
| Author | Masud, Mohammad Badrul |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.AE-12-01 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Thailand, Northern Climatic extremes--Thailand, Northern |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Agricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. AE-12-01 |
| Abstract | There is a need to evaluate the changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic parameters as well as their extremes. Projection and analysis of future climate scenarios are also importa nt to improve different resources like agriculture, water resource s , forestry, fisheries etc . for a given area. GCM (HadCM3 and CGCM1) and RCM (PRECIS) are used to develop future climate IPCC SRES A2 and B2; SDSM is used to downscale climate parameters fro m coarse dataset of GCM. A change in 27 extremes of rainfall and temperature at four stations of four provinces of North Thailand during 1960 - 2099 is analyzed to identify the variation and trend of observed as well as future climate. Rainfall variability i ndex is also investigated to identify the wettest and driest time period in the study area. Non - parametric Mann - Kendall tes t (MK test) is applied in this research to evaluate the statistical significance. Intensity, duration and amount of rainfall were in decreasing trend in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai and Tak provinces while Lamphun observed opposite trend during the observed period of 1960 - 2010. Temperature extreme indices showed significant ceiling trend in Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai and Tak provinces whereas no trend in Lamphun province. The onset of monsoon was 3 to 4 days earlier in Chiang Rai and Tak provinces in 2000 - 2010 relative to 1960 - 2000. Rainfall will notably increase in Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai province with the wettest period in the last three decad es within 2011 - 2099. All provinces will observe significant upward trend of temperature along with remarkable increase in summer days (SU35) and tropical nights (TR25) in the upcoming decades of 21 st century. Minimum temperature will grow up with very high ly significant trend than maximum temperature. As a result, diurnal temperature range (DTR) will be shorten that may cause drastic change to our resources. A noteworthy fall down of co ol days and nights will also experience in the whole study area while wa rm days and nights will have opposite trend. The results suggest that the rainfall variability is crucial in understanding seasonality and also advocate some adaptation measure s to cope of with these changes of climate in the future. |
| Year | 2012 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. AE-12-01 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources (Former title: Department of Food Agriculture, and BioResources (DFAB)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Agricultural and Food Engineering (AE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Soni, Peeyush |
| Examination Committee(s) | Tripathi, Nitin Kumar;Shrestha, Sangam, |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | ADB - Japan Scholarship Program (ADB - JSP) |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2012 |