Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice production in the central plain of Thailand using CERES-Rice model | |
| Author | Cho Cho Win |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.AS-14-03 |
| Subject(s) | Crops and climate--Thailand Rice--Research--Thailand Climatic changes--Evaluation--Thailand |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Scie nce in Agricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. AS-14-03 |
| Abstract | Modeling as a tool to assess the negative impact of climate change under future scenarios needs to be evaluated whether it performs well for a particular study site. In this study, the probable climate change impacts and the appropriate adaptation strategies for irrigated rice cultivation was assessed under two RCPs scenarios in the Central Plain of Thailand (Ayutthaya, Chachoengsao and Ratchaburi ) using CERES -Rice crop growth model. The model was calibrated for the study sites using various data collected from secondary sources including Rice Research Center and Meteorological Department in Thailand. Future climate scenarios for the time slices start ing from 2015s to 2095s with 10 years interval from the CSIRO -Mk3.6.0 GCM was corrected by using liner scaling of bias correction method for R CP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. There will be an average increase of 1.8, 1.8 and 1.4 °C in maximum temperature, 1.9, 1.7 and 1.8 °C in minimum temperature and an average decrease of –7.5%, –3.6 % and – 20.5% in precipitation for a decadal periods 201 5s to 2080s for Ayutthaya, Chachoengsao and Ratchaburi,respectively , compared with thebaseperiods weather averaged for all three Provinces under RCP4.5 scenarios. Under RCP8.5 scenario s, the weather averaged for all three Provinces will be 2.4, 2.3 and 2.3°C in maximum temperature, 2.5, 2.4 and 2.4°C in minimum temperature and 1.7, 4.3 and –11.2 % in precipitation for Ayutthaya, Chachoengsao and Ratchaburi, respectively,for a decadal periods from 2015s to 2095s.Crop modeling results show that rice yield is expected to decline by–54, –1.8 and – 2.6% during 2015s to 2095s under RCP4.5 scenarios for Ayutthaya, Chachoengsao and Ratchaburi , respectively , compared with the averageyield during 1996–2005. Under RCP8.5 scenario, yield will also reduce by – 69.5, –58.8 and –50.8 % during 2015s to 2095s for all three Provinces . Further analysis of CO 2 concentration and temperature on yield shows that the yield will increase by 12.4% for every 100 ppm rise of CO 2 concentration; however, yields will reduce at an average of 19% for each degree Celsius rise in temperature from ambient level. It has also been found that the decrease in yield under the future climate can be mitigated by changing various agricultural practices. Shifting the sowing dates, proper nutrient management in terms of quantity and changing cultivars having high temperature tolerance can enhance the yield under the changed climate condition. |
| Year | 2014 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. AS-14-03 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources (Former title: Department of Food Agriculture, and BioResources (DFAB)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Agricultural and Aquatic Systems (AS) |
| Chairperson(s) | Datta, Avishek |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Wattanaporn Meskuntavon |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Joint Japan / World Bank Graduate S cholarship Program (JJ / WBGSP);AIT Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014 |