Implications of selected strategies for urban air quality : an energy-environmental modeling study of Kathmandu Valley | |
| Author | Rajbhandari, Salony |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.ET-08-07 |
| Subject(s) | Air quality--Kathmandu Valley Energy consumption--Environmental aspects--Kathmandu Valley |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Energy Economics and Planning |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Kathmandu energy system model on MARKAL framework is developed for long term energy planning for 2005 to 2050. This model is used to analyze the least cost structure of energy supply, sectoral growth of energy consumption, role of energy sources, and sensitiveness of energy system towards uncertain parameters such as fuel prices. Further a dispersion model MUAIR is used to assess the concentration of PMlO in Kathmandu valley, which is one of the critical pollutants in the valley. Analysis of the base case shows that the primary energy supply is expected to grow with an average growth rate of 6% from 2005 to 2050. Fossil fuel is the dominant source of energy in the base year with a share of about 56% in the total energy supply. Its share in the total energy supply is found to reduce to 43% in the year 2050. Electricity share at the beginning of the planning horizon is not very significant and contributes around 14.72% in the total primary energy supply. Its share is expected to increase to 41.76% by 2050. Residential sector remains the major energy consuming sector in 2050, followed by transport, industrial and commercial sectors. The share of commercial sector in the total final energy consumption increases significantly from 9.81% in 2005 to 19.29% in 2050. Petroleum fuels contribute a major share of around 66% in transport sector in the base year and its share is expected to rise to 73% by 2050. The second largest consumer of petroleum products in the base year is the residential sector (19%), followed by commercial (13%) and industrial sector (3%). Transport, industrial and commercial sectors are the major contributors for CO2, S02 emissions and all the other local level pollutants. The effect of petroleum price hikes showed major changes in the total system cost and a decrement in the petroleum consumption pattern. The base case results of the MUAIR model for the year 2050 shows that the 24 hour highest average concentration to be 9919.52 ug/m³ which highly exceeds the NAAQS value. On setting the CO₂ emission limit target, the supply of electricity is expected to increase by almost 1.44 folds. The share of electricity in transport sector is found to be increasing from 0.02% in base case to 21.17% in C40 case. By imposing 40% CO₂ limit, the hydrogen fuel cell and the biodiesel options are found to be attractive. In order to achieve a 40% reduction in the CO₂ emissions compared to the base case, the total system cost has to be increased by 1,807 MUS$. In PMlO emission limits, renewables share is found to be decreasing by imposing higher PMlO constraints. The total system cost is found to increase by 0.13%, 0.29% and 0.57% respectively in 20 to 40% PMlO emission limit scenario. The highest PMlO concentrations can be reduced by 35% on setting emission limits of 40% on PMlO emissions compared to the base case. Transport sector is the major contributor for emissions in Kathmandu valley. If this sector can be shifted towards efficient technologies, higher amount of emission reduction can be obtained. It is observed that the supply of electricity increases by 24600 TJ and 61100 TJ in lower and medium modal shift case respectively compared to the base case. This shows that in order to attain a modal shift of lower and medium growth rates, the electricity supply must be increased by 6833 and 16972 Gwh respectively. |
| Year | 2008 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram M.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Kumar, Sivanappan ;Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Norway; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2008 |