1 AIT Asian Institute of Technology

Portfolio risk analysis based generation expansion planning

AuthorNguyen Xuan Phuc
Call NumberAIT Thesis no.ET-10-21
Subject(s)Fossil fuels Risk assessment--Vietnam

NoteA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Energy
PublisherAsian Institute of Technology
AbstractThis thesis presents a new generation expansion model that considers the fluctuation of fuel prices and effects of CO₂ trading. This model is applied to Viet Nam power sector during 2013-2030. This model finds out the efficient curve containing all feasible technology mixes. Each feasible mix represented by a value of risk-aversion factor has different value of risk, revenue from CO₂ trading and present value of total cost (PVTC). The result shows that the higher the PVTC, the lower the volatility of fuel cost and the higher the revenue from CO₂ trading. In the case of Viet Nam, if the investor selects high value of risk-aversion factor, renewables, such as solar and win, will become attractive. Furthermore, coal will be the dominant technology that replaces gas and oil.
Year2010
TypeThesis
SchoolSchool of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD)
DepartmentDepartment of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC))
Academic Program/FoSEnergy Technology (ET)
Chairperson(s)Marpaung, Charles O. P.;Shrestha, Ram M.;
Examination Committee(s)Kumar, Sivanappan;Weerakorn Ongsakul;
Scholarship Donor(s)EVN;Asian Institute of Technology fellowship;
DegreeThesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2010


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