An analysis of electricity demand and pollutant emissions using cointegration and ARIMA modeling : a case study of Thailand | |
| Author | Thad Aosombatkun |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.ET-10-25 |
| Subject(s) | Electric power consumption--Thailand--Forecasting Electric power consumption--Thailand--Evironmental aspects |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Energy |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The overall objective of this thesis was to analyze the electricity demand and pollutant emissions from electricity generation in Thailand. The cointegration approach was used to test the relationship between independent variables and a dependent variable, while Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used for forecasting. Annual time series data consists of gross domestic product (GDP), population, real average price of electricity and real price of liquid petroleum gas which have been taken into account. The study reveals that GDP per capita is the major factor for electricity demand in Thailand. Moreover, population and GDP are significant variables for CO2 emissions and SO2 emissions from electricity generation in Thailand, respectively. The estimation of short run and long run elasticities for electricity demand in Thailand shows that all of short run elasticities are smaller than the long run elasticities. Almost all of short run and long run elasticities in absolute value are less than unity; therefore, they are inelastic. It has only long run income elasticity which is elastic. The results form forecasting project that CO2 emissions and SO2 emissions have continuously increase each year that correspond with the raising of electricity demand in the future. |
| Year | 2010 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Marpaung, Charles O.P.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Singh, Jai Govind;Salam, Abdul P.; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | PEA;Asian Institute of Technology Education Cooperation Project;RTG Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2010 |