| Author | Pensupa Sattawatananon |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.ET-11-16 |
| Subject(s) | Electric transmission--Risk assessment--Thailand--Samui Island
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| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Energy |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study presents the risk analysis approach for the financial evaluation of electricity transmission system extension project. The risk analysis is applied by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) approach which uses random variables with a specific probability distribution. The program called “ @Risk ” has been used in the study. Both certain and uncertain factors are involved in the evaluation of the transmission projects. This study analyzed eleven cases representing different combination of the uncertainty factors, namely: load forecast, load factor, operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of submarine cable, O&M cost of switching station and discount rate. Each case results the net present worth (NPW) probability function. The results of the risk analysis in term of the NPW are compared with the base case. Each case reveals the different effect on the NPW. Load forecast has highest effect on the project NPW. Discount rate is the second high affect. Both are external factors which Provincial Electricity Authority ( PEA ) cannot control. The investors could aware these risks affect and unexpected results which are shown by this study. The probability of the NPW is important to the investors to decision that the project attractive or not. The results show that although the project has several uncertain factors, the project net present worth is never negative. This shows that this project is always attractive. |
| Year | 2011 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Marpaung, Charles O.P.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Salam, Abdul P.;Singh, Jai Govind; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | PEA;Asian Institute of Technology Education Cooperation Project;Royal Thai Government Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2011 |