1 AIT Asian Institute of Technology

Panel cointegration and causality analysis on C02 emissions in selected asean countries

AuthorPerada Limloetmongkol
Call NumberAIT Thesis no.ET-13-13
Subject(s)Carbon dioxide mitigation--Asia

NoteA thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Energy
PublisherAsian Institute of Technology
AbstractThis study aims to investigate the long-run relationship and the granger causality between variables namely, CO2 emissions, total primary energy supply (TPES), gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI) and population in selected ASEAN countries, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 1980 to 2010. The author analyzes in two cases that are panel and times series analysis. The methodology used in the study includes four steps. First, unit root tests are applied in order to test whether or not the series are stationary. Second, after finding that the series are integrated of the order one, the cointegration analysis is employed to examine whether there is cointegration between the aforementioned variables. The next step is to estimate the short-and long-run elasticities of CO2 emissions with respect to other variables. Last, the granger causality test is used to identify the causal relationship between the variables. The findings indicate that in long-run equilibrium, panel case, energy consumption, gross domestic product and population have a statistically significant impact on CO2 emissions. In case of individual analysis, the results show that energy consumption has a significant positive impact on CO2 emissions in all selected countries. Economic growth has a significant positive impact on CO2 emissions in case of Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. FDI has a statistically significant positive impact on CO2 emissions in Malaysia while it has a negative impact on CO2 emissions in Brunei and Indonesia. Population has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in Brunei whereas it has a negative impact on CO2 emissions in case of Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The results of granger causality test illustrate that, panel analysis, there is unidirectional granger causality running from economic growth (GDP) to CO2 emissions and from population to energy consumption. A weak one-way causal relationship is found flowing from economic growth to energy consumption and from population to economic growth. Moreover, the bidirectional causal relationship is found between FDI and economic growth. In case of individual causality, the causal relationships are different in each country.
Year2013
TypeThesis
SchoolSchool of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD)
DepartmentDepartment of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC))
Academic Program/FoSEnergy Technology (ET)
Chairperson(s)Marpaung, Charles O. P.;
Examination Committee(s)Singh, Jai Govind;Dhakal, Shobhakar;
Scholarship Donor(s)Royal Thai Government;Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship;
DegreeThesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2013


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