Assessment of future ozone air quality in Bangkok Metropolitan Region resulted from various combinations of climate and emission scenarios | |
| Author | Manatchanok Tantiphiphatthana |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.EV-11-07 |
| Subject(s) | Air quality--Thailand- Bangkok Climatic changes--Thailand--Bangkok Ozone--Evaluation--Thailand--Bangkok |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Environmental Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The main purpose of this study is to assess the effects of climate change on ground-level ozone air quality for BMR, Thailand. Ozone is known as strong oxidant that may cause adverse effect on crop yield reduction which is in particular research interest for an agriculture-based country such as Thailand. In addition, due to its location in tropical region where ozone is expected to be high, its plausible levels in the future under different scenarios are particularly important especially for mitigation policy formulation. Prediction of future ozone required accurate future climate condition and emission projection. Thereby, dynamic downscaled outputs from an RCM PRECIS were obtained and evaluated against the observations in Thailand. Statistical downscaling was applied to estimate future trend of important climate parameters (i.e. temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, etc.) for A2 and B2 IPCC-SRES scenarios. The output of ECHAM4 GCM was used to force as the initial and boundary conditions for PRECIS which was performed at the SEA-START office in Bangkok. The forecasting trend of future climate conditions in 2040, by assuming a maximum temperature change of 1°C, was used to create a meteorological scenario to be used in MM5-CAMx photochemical model. The anthropogenic emission in BMR in 2040 under A2 and B2 was estimated based on the emission ratios for the SEA (Southeast Asia) region. The future biogenic emission was estimated for the 1°C increase in temperature. The MM5-CAMx was applied to the base year of 2007 and also for the future of 2040 to investigate the change in future ozone levels in BMR. Overall, hourly maximum ozone in 2040 increased by a maximum of 171 ppb in January and by 95 ppb in August under A2 scenario, whereas, the increasing was 170 ppb and 105 ppb in January and August respectively under B2. All scenarios simulated in this study cause the difference in monthly average ozone concentration by 1-3 ppb in January and by 1-2 ppb in August as compared to the based year. Moreover, the simulation shows that the anthropogenic emission is a significant factor for ground-level ozone concentration. This was confirmed by the change of hourly maximum ozone concentration of around 77-132 ppb as compared to the based case when no temperature change was assumed for 2040. The influence of 1°C increase would only cause the difference of around 5-6 ppb of hourly maximum ozone concentration between 2007 and 2040. Further studies are required to produce better future climate conditions and also future emission for photochemical smog modeling. |
| Year | 2011 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Environmental Engineering (EV) |
| Chairperson(s) | Nguyen, Thi Kim Oanh; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Annachhatre, Ajit P.;Thammarat Koottatep; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Royal Thai Government;Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2011 |