Development of an on-road emission inventory using a dynamic vehicle population model in Sri Lanka | |
| Author | Perera John, Gayanthi Krishani |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.EV-18-37 |
| Subject(s) | Air quality management--Sri Lanka Motor vehicles--Fuel consumption--Sri Lanka Vehicles--Environmental aspects--Sri Lanka |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. EV-18-37 |
| Abstract | Economic growth in developing countries had led to a boom in the number and use of vehicles. The rapid increase in the vehicle population in conjunction with the limit ed use of emission control technologies, has made the transport sector the largest contributor to ambient air pollution in Sri Lanka. Although, Sri Lanka has not yet experienced any acute air quality problems, the projected rates of economic and vehicular growth can lead to rapid deterioration of the air quality. Therefore, there is an urgency to eliminate the unintended consequences of transportation. Motorized on - road vehicles have an overwhelming dominance over the transport sector in Sri Lanka and th ey are expected to do so for the foreseeable future. The lack of adequate data regarding on - road emissions delays the actions needed to appraise, mitigate and control air pollution. Therefore, within the scope of this work, a comprehensive on - road emission inventory was developed for Sri Lanka, from 2010 to 2040, using the dynamic vehicle population model within the framework of the SPEW - Trend. Exhaust emis sions of PM 10 , CO, HC and NO x were determined under the four fuel consumption scenarios described by the SAARC Energy Center for Sri Lanka. Emissions were determined by dividing fuel use among various vehicle technologies . The vehicle technology share is a given year was determined by the timing of emission standard implementation, vehicle retirement rates and super - emitter generation rates. Emission factors were assigned to each technology variant and the total emissions from 2010 to 2040 was determined, a nnually, by integrating emissions of different vehicle technologies, types and all ages. The active vehicle fleet in Sri Lanka is composed of 35% motor cars, 29% three - wheelers, 27% motorcycles, 6% goods transportation vehicles and 3% buses. The average age of motor cars is 16 years, motorcycles and three - wheelers are 8 and 9 years respectively and buses and goods transportation vehicles are 14 years. More than 50% of the motor car, motorcycle and goods transportation vehicles are imported as second hand vehicles in to the island. Majority of the motor cars in Sri Lanka originate from Japan, while three - wheelers, motorcycles, buses and goods transportation vehicles originate predominantly from India. Vehicle activity of all vehicle types decrease continuou sly with age. The average annual mileage was determined to be 9612km, 5958km, 5451km, 33156km and 13218km for motor cars, motorcycles, three - wheelers, buses and goods transportation vehicles respectively. Equilibrium super - emitter fraction of motor cars, m otorcycles, three - wheelers, buses and goods transportation vehicles were determined to be 11%, 21%, 27%, 10% and 12% respectively. Historical fuel consumption data revealed that annual diesel consumption by the transport sector is 70% and goods transportat ion vehicles dominate fuel consumption. In 2040, emissions are projected to be 2.92 – 3.2 kton of PM 10 , 85.5 – 101.5 kton of CO, 13.3 – 15.1 kton of HC and 79.5 – 88.8 kton of NO x . PM 10 , CO and HC emissions decrease continuously despite the increase in fue l consumption. NO x emissions increase throughout the study period however; the rate of increase reduces continuously with time. PM 10 and NO x emission intensities are the highest under the MASSTRANS scenario. HDDVs contribute to 80 - 91% of the total PM 10 e missions and 70 – 93% of the total NO x emissions. On average super - emitters contribute to over 30% of the total PM 10 , HC and CO emissions and over 20% to NO x emissions. This is the first on - road emission inventory developed for Sri Lanka and the results thus obtained can be used as scientific input for effective air quality management in Sri Lanka. |
| Year | 2018 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. EV-18-37 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Environmental Engineering and Management (EV) |
| Chairperson(s) | Ekbordin Winijkul; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shipin, Oleg V.;Virdis, Salvatore G. P.; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | AIT Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2018 |