Reliability-based decision making in offshore platform construction management | |
| Author | Chompoonut Junkongsuwan |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.OTM-09-03 |
| Subject(s) | Offshore oil industry--Design and construction--Decision making Project management---Decision making |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Offshore Technology and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. OTM-09-03 |
| Abstract | NOTE 520 The objective of this study was to propose a systematic approach based primarily upon reliability analysis for decision making in fixed offshore platform construction management. In this study, basic concepts of statistic, reliability, planning and scheduling were reviewed and the optimum decision making was based on minimum expected loss. The proposed procedure could be explained briefly as followed. Firstly, engineering data collection was essential in order to define the statistical properties and relationships of activities. Monte Carlo simulation was utilized to prior estimate the future project duration through a statistically valid model. Once a set of project duration was obtained, the best fitted distribution was considered by the Chi-Square Test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test. It was used to evaluate the probability to complete a project in a specific time. The shorten duration was required to increase reliability of plan. The expected loss against the probability of project delays was also acquired from the model. The optimum reduction time was based on minimum expected loss criterion. The applicability of proposed procedure could be illustrated by a case study of 4 legs-pile jacket including 102 activities. Analytical results showed that Monte Carlo simulation and project scheduling were able to work together very well. The statistical analysis of project duration distribution was invaluable information for better decisions. The benefits of this procedure were (1) selection of proper bidding and contract strategies (2) effective planning and control project (3) optimal solution for any decision making. (4) reduction of expected loss. From the case study shown, the 13% shorten project duration could reduce the expected loss approximately up to 90% of conventional planning. |
| Year | 2009 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. OTM-09-03 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Offshore Technology and Management (OTM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Chiu, Gregory L. F. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Poovadol Sirirangsi;Winai Ouypornprasert;Widjaja, Joko H. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | RTG Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2009 |