A methodology for consistent evaluation of project risks using a multi-criteria decision analysis approach | |
| Author | Kyaw Zan Oo |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.OTM-16-01 |
| Subject(s) | Evaluation--Methodology Risk--Decision making |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Offshore Technology and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. OTM-16-01 |
| Abstract | This study is conducted to develop a new methodology for consistent evaluation of project risks. Risk is inherent to every project and managing them wisely has been a key enabler for the success of modern day projects which are financially demanding and technically complex. Risk evaluation is one of the most important steps in a project risk management process in which risks are categorized and evaluated to decide upon risk response, risk control and risk monitoring strategies. Currently used risk evaluation approaches in literature and in practice have limitations in dealing with multiple attributes of a risk. This study is thus conducted to address that issue. In this study, a new method called value function approach is proposed. The method is based on the Multi-attribute Value Theory (MAVT) which is a method of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) of decision science. The proposed method converts all the attributes of the risks having different units into the same unit called value function thus making it possible to combine them in a logical way. Weighted average technique is then used to aggregate the constructed value functions in which the weights represent the project team’s preference among the constraints of a project and reflects the trade-offs among them. The resulting value after the aggregation is called Risk Score and it is used to determine criticality and ranking of the risks. Procedures and questionnaire for eliciting value function and preference weights are also presented in this study along with the excel workbooks to carry out the analysis. The proposed method is then applied to a case study project and the results show that the proposed method produce similar criticality status and ranking of risks compared to currently used approach with further improvements such as ability to consider different attributes of a risk and incorporate project team preferences. |
| Year | 2016 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. OTM-16-01 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Offshore Technology and Management (OTM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Chiu, Gregory L. F.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Boswell, Laurence F.;Sarunphong Articharte; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2016 |