Investigating future yield and adaptation measures in rice production under climate change scenarios in Quang Nam Province, Vietnam | |
| Author | Bui Thi Thu Trang |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-13-04 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Vietnam--Quang Nam Rice Climatic factors--Vietnam--Quang Nam |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | In recent years, climate change has become a biggest problem in developing countries all over the world, especially in Vietnam. Global climate change may affect the yield of rice crop in the future. This study analyses the impacts of climate change on rice production and adaptation in Nui Thanh district, one coastal district of central Vietnam where there aremany natural disasters hit annually. This study pursue to seek following queries including forecast future rainfall, temperature and rice yield, and analyze adaptation measures to improve rice production under different climate change scenarios in Nui Thanh district, Quang Nam province, Vietnam. The study was based on firstly identification of the problem in the study area followed by collection of secondary data collection on weather, soil characteristics and crop management. Then the downscaling model was used to predict the temperature and precipitation of the study area in the future by A2 and B2 scenarios. The crop Aquacrop model was used to simulate the yield response with the outputs of the SDSM. After that, the impact of climate change scenarios on rice yield was analyzed. Lastly, the evaluation for adaptation measure to improve rice production under climate change based on water management was determined. The future climate scenario for periods of 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2090 was downscaled using statistical downscaling software (SDSM) from GCM HadCM3 for A2 and B2 emission scenarios. It is expected that, the minimum temperature will increase about 0.350C, 1.100C and 1.720C for A2 scenario; and increase about 0.390C, 0.810C and 1.290C for B2 scenario in periods 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2090 respectively to compare with the period minimum temperature is 21.60C. The maximum temperature will increase by 0.930C, 2.380C and 3.690C for A2 scenario; and by 0.980C, 1.790C and 2.780C for B2 scenario in periods 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2090 respectively to compare with the period minimum temperature is 30.110C. The annual precipitation may increase from 0.66% to 9.75% for A2 scenario and from 1.83% to 5.62% for B2 scenario. The precipitation will be decrease during rainy season and increase from mid of dry season. The result of Aquacrop showed that the simulation of yield may reduce for all of future periods for winter crop by rainfed calibrate. The yield significantly decreases during period 2071-2090 with both A2 and B2 scenarios. The yield simulated by Aquacrop express a decline 5.97 to 23.05 and 1.29 to 10.96 percent compared to the yield of the baseline period for A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. With summer crop, for baseline period 2001-2010, the model calibrated for irrigated crop. However, the rainfall significant increase on this season in the future. Therefore, the water available will be enough for crop for some periods. Then, the yield increase about 5% and 6.67 % for period 2014-2040, 2% and 2.78 % for 2041-2070 with A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. The yield will reduce 1.83% and 6.26% for 2071-2090 with A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. Management practice by supplementary irrigation and altering the date of transplanting in field can increase the yield of rice to higher under climate change scenarios. It will be appropriate helping farmer to cope with impact of climate change. |
| Year | 2013 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Sutat Weesakul;Perret, Sylvain Roger |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Thailand International Development Cooperation Agency (TICA) |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2013 |