| Author | Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-15-06 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Risk assessment--Nepal
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| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. WM-15-06 |
| Abstract | Climate change and its impact on river hydrology has been a major concern to hydropower development in a mountainous watershed. This study investigates the impact of climate change in the hydropower production of one of the under construction hydropower pro ject in Tamakoshi basin and the risk associated with the production of energy in the future period due to climate change. MIROC - ESM, MRI - CGCM3 and MPI - ESM - M GCMs, which are used in the Coupled Model Intercompar ison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) based on Repres entative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were used for the future projection of temperature and precipitation. The projection of precipitation for the future period are not certain and varies seasonally according to different GCMs without any trend. The average annual precipitation in the future period is ex pected to vary between - 8% to +24.8% . Minimum and maximum t emperature are proje cted to increase by up to 6.33 ºC and 3.82 ºC respectively during 2090s. The analysis of the streamflow using SWAT model for the future timeline shows significant change in the discharge of the river at the intake dam site. Discharge at the intake dam site is expected to vary between minimum change of - 9.8% to maximum increase in average annual discharge by +47%. Due to change in the streamflow, annual energy production is also expected to change accordingly. The future average annual energy production is expected to vary between - 7.6 % to +15.8 %. By using three GCMs, the sensitivity of the risk associated with the annual hydroelectric production under altered runoff were analyzed . The risk percentage in the future period shows mild risk varying from 0.69 % to 6.63% with MPI - ESM - M expecting higher p ercentage of risk for energy prod uction during the future period, when compared with the baseline energy production of 1963 GWh. Mild to moderate risk can be expected when the energy production in the future period is compared with the baseline energy prod uction of 2281 GWh. |
| Year | 2015 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-15-06 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Sarawut Ninsawat;Babel, Mukand Singh |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | AIT Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2015 |