Evaluation of satellite and GCM rainfall and climate change impact on stream flow in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan | |
| Author | Sidiqi, Massouda |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-15-11 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Afghanistan--Kabul River Basin Streamflow--Afghanistan--Kabul River Basin Satellites--Evaluation |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. WM-15-11 |
| Abstract | The research was conducted to evaluate the output precipitation data of satellite and GCM and to find out the supplementary data to use as an observed data in the missing data years. It was found that, the GPCP and CMAP satellite data are nearly same to the observed data whereas , TRMM data is not even in the range of observed data and gives the high and similar trend of precipitation in all months , containing summer (dry) season . Simi larly, GCMs precipitation data also have good correlation with the observed data especially BCC - CSM1.1 mode l compare to the other GCMs . This research was also conducted to project climate scenario as well as stream flow of Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan b y using three GCMs model under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Future climate data (Precipitation and Temperature) obtained from the models were bias corrected using delta change approach to four observed meteorological stations inside Kabul River Basin. Future climate data were pre d icted for the three future periods like 2020s (2010 - 2039), 2050s (2040 - 2069) and 2080s (2070 - 2099). Due to the agreement of all GCM, the predicted value of temperature shows that the mean annual temperature of the basin will increase in all three periods of the future compare to the baseline period (1961 - 1980). However, the degree of increase is not same in different GCMs. On the other hand, the projected annual precipitation amount is dramatically declined by approximately 53% to 65% for the whole river basin under both scenarios in the future period of 2010 - 209 9. The predicted precipitation value form all GCMs and both RCPs are dissimilar. The SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model was used to p redict the stream flow in the future for Kabul River Basin. The hydrological model was set up as well as calibrated by using observed stream flow of Dakah station. To predict the stream flow in the future, the ensemble projected climate scenarios were used in the basin. The results of analysis show that, the mean annual discharge will increase during three periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) in the future. The rates of increase from different scenarios are not same. Comparison of mean monthly discharge shows t hat, the months of May, June and July will have the peak of discharge than the other months and there will be less discharge in January, February, March , October , November and December months. Moreover, analysis found that, the mean annual stream flow will increase 50 - 120% in three future periods . Increase of water availability for the basin, may facilitate irrigation, water dem a nd and will also cause flood for the areas surrounding by Kabul River Basin. |
| Year | 2015 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-15-11 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Babel, Mukand Singh;Sarawut Ninsawat |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | AIT - Balkh University Partnership Project |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2015 |