Climate change impacts on water availability at Marala barrage in Chenab River Basin, Pakistan | |
| Author | Wattoo, Amir Mumtaz |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-16-23 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Water-supply--Pakistan Chenab River Basin Climatic changes--Environmental aspects |
| Note | A thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. WM-16-23 |
| Abstract | Global warming, change of precipitation pattern and intensity and shrinking of glaciers has put water resources of Pakistan under threat and cause frequent floods and droughts throughout the country. Fresh water resources are likely to be affected by climate change in future. The study aims to project climatic parameters of the Chenab River basin and to estimate the future water availability under climate change scenarios of River Chenab basin at Marala Barrage. And to develop operational plans at Marala Barrage under future water availability. The future water availability within Chenab River Basin will help policy makers and water managers for better management of water resources within whole Indus Basin Irrigation system. Precipitation and temperature of the basin has been projected by output of three GCMs/RCMs downscaled at basin scale level by using quantile mapping technique. The result shows an increase in temperature at a rate of 0.38oC/decade for future period 2006-2100. Similarly, there has been 5-15% increase in future winter and summer precipitation in Chenab river basin. However, winter precipitation at lower altitude tends to decrease in near future. Future runoff has been computed by using snow melt runoff model which is based on degree day method. The calibrated and validated snow melt runoff Model is fed with future temperature and precipitation data and past snow cover area of average hydrological year to compute the future runoff under climate change scenarios. The model itself models snow cover area under changed climate and gives climate affected runoff for future period. The future runoff under climate change scenarios shows 15-30% increase in annual runoff volumes compared with base period of 1991-2014. The increase in future summer runoff is attributed to increase in glacier melt. The incidence and intensity of floods at Marala barrage in summer season is expected to increase in future as a result of increase in monsoon precipitation combined with melt water. The future runoff at Marala barrage suggests an increase in volume of water to be diverted to its off-taking channels. |
| Year | 2016 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-16-23 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand Singh |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Tawatchai Tingsanchali |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Punjab Irrigation Department |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2016 |