Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change scenarios in Gujranwala District of Punjab, Pakistan | |
| Author | Ali, Mohib Ullah |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-16-30 |
| Subject(s) | Crops and climate--Pakistan--Punjab Rice--Climatic factors |
| Note | Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. WM-16-30 |
| Abstract | Climate Change poses an alarming threat to agriculture and global food security. Rice production in Pakistan holds an extremely important position in agriculture and the national economy. Since District Gujranwala has the largest production of rice in Punjab, Pakistan therefore itis need of the hour to assess the impact of climate change on productivity of rice and lessen its impact by use of agricultural adaptation measures in Gujranwala District. This study focuses on assessing impact of future climate on rice production and the evaluation of different agricultural adaptation measures suggested by farmers themselves to minimize the impacts of climate change using DSSAT Model. Future climate scenarios under outputs of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5for the periods 2016-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099 were developed using three GCMs CCSM4, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-MR and downscaled using Quantile Mapping Bias Correction Technique. The minimum and maximum temperature of the district is projected to increase by 0.975 to 3.625°Cand 0.65 to 3.2°C respectively in future. Similarly the annual precipitation is expected to decrease by 6%to 12%.The model DSSAT was used to simulate the impact of future climates on yield. Results show that climate change will reduce yield from 1.09 to 26% for both scenarios and all time periods, relative to baseline yield. This decrease of yield can be offset by opting for various agricultural adaptation measures. On the basis of famer survey it was found that the practiced agricultural adaptation measures of proper management of nutrients, irrigation, use of alternate rice variety and shifting the planting dates have been helpful in mitigating the impact of climate change. Late transplanting of rice increases the yield by 9.9% to 22.2% in future. Increasing the fertilizer application rate enhances the yield from 3.73% to 26.96% under future climate. Delaying the time of application of fertilizer increases the yield from 4.33% to13.04% in future. Shifting to alternate varieties also increases the yield in future. Deficit Irrigation increases the yield from 2.51% to 22.2% for the future. Therefore based on these findings change in planting date, deficit irrigation, proper nutrient management and adopting to alternate rice cultivars can be beneficial for the adaption of rice cultivation under climate change scenarios in Gujranwala District of Punjab, Pakistan. |
| Year | 2016 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-16-30 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Jourdain, Damien;Andriyas, Sanyogita |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Punjab Irrigation Department;World Bank |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2016 |