| Author | Araujo, Samuely Franky Beram Silva de |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.OTM-14-02 |
| Subject(s) | Petroleum industry and trade--Finance --Timor Leste
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| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for thedegree of Master of EngineeringinOffshore Technology and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. OTM-14-02 |
| Abstract | Petroleum fiscal Systemis a setof regulations and agreements which governs the economical benefits derived frompetroleum explorationandproduction; itplays important rolesin managing and portioning the revenue between government and contractors. Any petroleum fiscal regime should be progressive which flexible enough and provides a fair split of profit from oil and gas revenue to the government and contractor. The regressive petroleum fiscal regime tends to create an unfairness condition to government and contractor if there is any changing in the price of oil and gas, CAPEX, OPEX, or production. Therefore, the designing of progressive fiscal regimes are evaluatedin this thesis and perform economic analysis in the case of Timor Lestepetroleum fiscal regimes that adopted the production sharing contract (PSC)system. The deterministic analysis examines and compares the existing Timor Leste PSCwith a newmodeldesign fiscal arrangement as Sam Model 1 (SM1) where components such royalty, oil and gas profit split, and income tax are sliding scaled subjected to R-Factor. As the expected outcomes, SM1 provides Government Take (GT) increase as there is more profit in the project while GT less when the project less profit and provides more to contractor to take. The Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the contractor are change accordingly to the profit of the project. Meanwhile, the existing petroleum fiscal of Timor Leste provides condition inversely to the GT and contractor take (CT). This condition describes that, SM1 is progressive than Timor Leste existing petroleum fiscal regimes. After deterministic analysis using to models the SM1, than probabilistic analysis is applied to examine the SM1 by permitting the variables such prices of oil and gas, CAPEX, OPEX and production are change simultaneously.10000 iterations of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of SM1 is conducted to examine the NPV, IRR and GT by letting the variables change. The result denote that the mean of NPV is 2,168.22 $MM, the mean of IRR is 31, 75% and the percentage of GT is 66, 59% however the deterministic analysis of SM1indicates that, the NPV is 1,774 $MM, IRR is 38% and GT is 66%.To conclude, this thesis offers a progressiveness of SM1 model which is flexible and fair enough based on the profit of the project and could be used as an alternative fiscal regime for Timor Leste to be employed on Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPDA). |
| Year | 2014 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. OTM-14-02 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Offshore Technology and Management (OTM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Chiu, Gregory L.F. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Thitisak Boonpramote;Boswell, Laurie F. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Human Development Capital Fund (HDCF);Ministry of Education, Timor-Leste |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2014 |