Time series analysis for west texas intermediate (WTI) crude oil price behavior with shale oil production in U.S. | |
| Author | Korrawat Kulkraisri |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.OTM-18-02 |
| Subject(s) | Petroleum products--Prices Shale oil |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Offshore Technology and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. OTM-18-02 |
| Abstract | The paper shows the interactionbehaviorbetween WTI crude oil price and shale oil production in U.S. using time series analysis. Finding the period that shale oil started to have influence withWTI crude oil priceby structural break of shale oil production. In addition, due to crude oil extraction hydraulic fracturing technologyand directional drillingtechnologylead to the production levelof shale oilin US risensignificantlyin 2007. From the basic economic where there are supply and demand, US shale oil production has risenfrom 0.4 million barrels perday in 2007 to over fourmillion barrels perday in 2014. This is because in elastic supply view of oil market whenhigher prices eventually stimulate oil supply by encouraging investment in technology and exploration during that time period.However, during low benchmark WTI prices shale oil and gas producers can faces loss since the breakeven cost for the currentlyshale oil is aroundabove50 dollars per barrel. Therefore, this is like a resistance level of WTI price. When the price above the margin, shale oil production start to supply the market in which create a factor to influence the WTI price to dropagain.In this paper, Ievaluate the time series analysis which took WTI price monthly data and shale oil production monthly data along with crude oil production monthly from 2000 to 2016. With this period, we cando theanalysis of shale oil revolution and its effect to the WTI price benchmark. We use time series theory and computer software called EVIEW to create ARIMA modeland analyze the WTI prices as dependent variable onshale oil productionand conventional field oil production. Thus,in total we create 4 ARIMA models that show the relationship between WTI crude oil price and shale oil production and conventional crude oil production during before and after the structural break of crude oil production in U.S. The result shows how well theregressor forecasting model during these two periods. |
| Year | 2018 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. OTM-18-02 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Offshore Technology and Management (OTM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Bui V. Dao |
| Examination Committee(s) | Thitisak Boonpramote;Sarunphong Articharte |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Thailand (HM King) |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2018 |