Assessing climate change impacts on flood inundation in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon Basin, Vietnam | |
| Author | Vu Trung Dung |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-17-22 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic change--Vietnam--Gia-Thu Bon Basin Floods--Vietnam--Gia-Thu Bon Basin |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. WM-17-22 |
| Abstract | Flood has been seen as one of the most catastrophic natural disasters which happen consecutively and cause disastrous damages to society, economy and environment. Under the impact of climate change, rainfall is predicted to vary remarkably that affects significantly flood characteristics and inundation extent. Previous researches on flood for just based on historical floods and the related to flood frequencies. The understanding about flood behavior in this area under climate change impacts is scanty and incomplete. Therefore, the aim of this research is to investigate the effect of high-intensity rainfall with different return period and rainfall under climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 produced by IPCC5) on flood in the Vu Gia–Thu Bon River Basin. In this research, GCMs linear bias correction was carried out to project future climate datawith2 scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. MIKE-NAM model was employed to calculate rainfall-runoff process. MIKE and HECRAS models were developed to simulate flood in the river and floodplain. The output of hydrodynamic model was used to create inundation map in ArcGIS. Flood characteristics such as inundation area, flood depth, flow discharge and food diversion between rivers in the river network were analyzed and compared between 2 dataset, historical data and forecasted data for the future. Results indicate that for climate change scenario RCP 4.5, average annual precipitation for the study area's predicted to increase to 16.3%, 21% and 11.7% in the period 2020s, 2050s, 2080s respectively. These numbers in scenario RCP 8.5 are 19.5%, 13.1% and 15.9%. As a consequence of changing in rainfall, flood also change in expanding trend. Inundation area expands remarkably, and flood depth increases around 1.5 times compared to historical flood. When rainfall in the floodplain is added, the flood peak increases around 2 times. |
| Year | 2017 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WM-17-22 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Duc Hoang Nguyen |
| Examination Committee(s) | Babel, Mukand Singh;Shrestha, Sangam;Somchai Chonwattana |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (DAAD) Germany;AIT Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2017 |