Climate change impacts on water resources and cereal yield in Mohana River Basin, Nepal | |
| Author | Tripathee, Nisha |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-18-15 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic change--Nepal--Mohana River Basin Water-supply--Nepal--Mohana River Basin Cereal--Yields--Nepal--Mohana River Basin |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis;no. WM-18-15 |
| Abstract | Future climate data for temperature and precipitation obtained from climate models were bias corrected using the linear scaling method. Maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation were projected for three future periods: Near future (2018-2040), MF (2041-2070) and FF (2070-2099) against the baseline period of 1980-2005. The mean annual temperature in the basin is projected to increase by 1.1°C, 2.2°C and 3.2°C in near future, mid future and far future respectively. The mean annual precipitation is projected to increase except in mid future under RCP4.5 whereas monthly precipitation is expected to increase and decrease according to the months for the whole river basin, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, by 2100. The calibration of the spatially distributed hydrological models is complex due to the lack of reliable data, uncertainty in representing the physical features of a river catchment, and the implementation of hydrological processes in a simulation model. In this research, calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is done by incorporation of remote sensing- MODIS AET and monthly discharge data at sub-basin. The calibration result showed good performance with Nash coefficient of 0.73 during calibration period and 0.75 during validation with AET. Similarly with monthly discharge in one of the sub-catchment Nash coefficient is 0.75 for calibration period and 0.84 for validation period. Results show that the annual average precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (ET) and net water yields of the whole basin were 2,010 millimeters (mm), 746 mm and 1,219mm, respectively for the baseline period. Due to the climate change, the result showed increase in net water yield, with slight decreasing trend in actual evapotranspiration. In addition, high flows in the basin are expected to increase which indicates that flood risk can increase whereas, increase in low flow can be taken as opportunity. So, the ministries and departments should consider the impact accordingly. From the Aqua crop model, it was estimated that cereal yield (rice, wheat and maize) were increasing for all future period. Adaptation strategies – such as increasing FYM application, and other management practices that will improve soil fertility will be important in enhancement of crop production and taking advantage of beneficial changes in climate. |
| Year | 2018 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis;no. WM-18-15 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand S.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Soni, Peeyush;Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Development Bank-Japan Scholarship Program (ADB-JSP); |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2018 |