| Author | Khadka, Dibesh |
| Note | A thesis report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Glacier and snow covered area plays an important role in the hydrology of glacierized basin and there is large uncertainty over its future evolution. Moreover, phenomenon of climate change is likely to alter the hydrological cycle and bring changes in water availability in future making long term water management more challenging in the basin. This study has been aimed to enumerate future changes in climatic parameters in the Tamakoshi basin of Nepal under different socio-economic development scenarios, predict change in snow covered area for changed climate and subsequently quantify temporal change in runoff from the basin. Remote sensing technique has been extensively used to estimate snow covered area. In this study also, MODIS snow product MOD10A1 images was validated relative to LANDSAT images and used to delineate snow area of the basin. Future climate of the basin is generated by downscaling output of HADCM3 Global circulation model using statistical downscaling model for A2 and B2 scenario defined by IPCC. It was found that there will be continuous increase in both temperature and precipitation in 21st century with A2 scenario producing more extreme climatic changes. Relationship between snow covered area with temperature and precipitation was developed from the observed data and was used to predict future snow coverage. The result signifies that there will not be drastic decline in glacial and snow coverage for future period considered till 2040 as previously suggested by IPCC reports. Maximum decrease in snow coverage was seen for spring season where it accounts about 25 % decrease till 2040. Snowmelt runoff model was used to simulate basin runoff till 2040. The analysis revealed that about 15 % of annual runoff in the basin is contributed by snow and ice melting. Model simulation for future under climate change indicated that basin runoff will increase and summer season constitutes majority of this increment. This study will be useful for planning water management strategies for future in the basin to avoid conflicts among various water sectors. |
| Year | 2011 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand S. ; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Tripathi, Nitin Kumar ;Shrestha, Sangam ;Kawasaki, Akiyuki ; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Partial AIT Fellowship; |