Maed-based analysis of energy demand in Nepal for 2050 under multiple scenarios | |
| Author | KC, Samrat |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.ET-19-20 |
| Subject(s) | Energy consumption--Nepal Power resources--Nepal--Forecasting |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Energy |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Fulfilling the energy demand is one of the major issues of Nepal. The country aims for transformation into a high economic growth. This will have a deep impact on the energy demand. This study analyses the energy demand under various scenarios with the available information on the energy consumption and their impacts on investment, environment and trade for the time period 2017-2050.The energy demand analysis is done using Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) model. With high penetration of electricity and high economic growth, the findings from this study suggests that energy demand can increase by almost 2.1 to 3 fold from 2017 to 2050. It also suggests that the share of traditional fuel will decrease from 400.1 PJ to 82.1 PJ in an ambitious scenario and increase to 618.5 PJ in the reference scenario. Also, it was found that electricity demand will be as high as 847 PJ in the most ambitious scenario of this study. The installed capacity of the electricity should reach 46,214 MW if the targets set by government are to be met. The study also suggests that the cumulative investment needed for the most electrified scenario will be NPR 10,232 billion. The scenarios which deal with the targets and plans of the government can reduce the CO2 emissions by almost 72% similar to that of an ambitious scenario. The fossil fuel import cost will reach NPR 1455.4 billion in 2050 for a scenario where electrification is considered only in the household sector and around NPR 339 - 348 billion for the national targets meeting scenario and the ambitious scenario. These scenarios can save up to 72% cost of imports on fossil fuel in 2050 as compared to the reference scenario. The energy security, only under these two scenario will improve from 2017. |
| Year | 2019 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy and Environment (EE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Dhakal, Shobhakar; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Roy, Joyashree ;Salam, Abdul P.; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2019 |