| Author | Mehmood, Tallat |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Climate Change is a big risk to our ability for ensuring global food security, alleviate poverty and attain sustainable development goals. In this study AquaCrop model was used to assess the impacts of climate change on wheat and maize grain yield and biomass in future. The model was calibrated by using various data from secondary sources of Punjab Province. Future Climate data were downloaded by using two RCMs (ACCESS-CSIROCCAM and CNRM-CM- CSIROCCAM) for period of 2020s (2020-49), 2050s (2050-74) and 2080s (2074-99) for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios. Some stations data was unavailable and was downloaded from global sources.
It is predictable that maximum and minimum temperature & rainfall will rise throughout the study area under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 as compared to baseline period (1978-2007). Maximum temperature is projected to rise from 0.79 oC to 5.25 oC, while minimum temperature will increase from 0.68 oC to 5.15 oC in future. The rainfall is projected to increase from 17.39 mm to 173.89 mm in all nine divisions (19 Stations) of Punjab in 2020-99. Man-Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s slope were performed to check the trends and magnitude of future Tmax, Tmin and rainfall in annual, rabi and kharif seasons.
Sensitivity analysis was done to check parameters that have significant influence on model output by changing +25% (increase or decrease) of input parameters. The model was calibrated with three types of data (i) experimental data on irrigated area (ii) experimental data on rainfed area (iii) and farmers field.
The grain yield and biomass simulated by AquaCrop model for wheat indicates that grain yield and biomass may increase in RCP 4.5/8.5. Further analysis of growth stages and elevated CO2 shows that optimum temperature in all growth period & higher CO2 concentration increases wheat yield and biomass in future. Maize grain yield and biomass simulated by model is predicted to reduce in future due to high heat stress in growth stages (tasseling and silking) under future RCP 4.5 & 8.5 scenarios.
It has also been predicted that reduction in maize grain yield and biomass under future climate can be lessened by shifting sowing dates and changing irrigation methods to sprinkler for further saving of water and increasing the yield and biomass in future. To increase the wheat grain yield and biomass in future more shifting sowing dates and using drip irrigation method for irrigating is predicted to be the best adaptation option for increasing grain yield and biomass and to decrease water losses in future.
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| Year | 2019 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand S. ; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Datta, Avishek; Ekasit Kositsakulchai ; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | World Bank;Punjab Agriculture Department Pakistan ; |