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Risk quantification for cost estimation of oil field project | |
Author | Sompong Phajunta |
Note | An internship submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering (Professional) in Offshore Technology and Management |
Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
Abstract | In the oil and gas industry, when a company has a history of successfully planning and executing project developments, the company make sure that detailed cost data for these project are obtained. These costs are generally broken down into a common cost coding structure, thus giving the cost estimator a unique database for use in cost estimate modeling and enabling the company to develop accurate cost estimates along the project lifecycle. This report presents the cost estimation in part of project cost management which is done by TIP Engineering and Services for the wellhead processing platforms. Name as Aroma oil field, the field is within the G1/48 concession, about 80 km (50 mi) offshore in 44 m (144 ft) of water. The project have 2 major estimation work in the project timeline and to challenge the cost decision the methods were selected in difference approach. First project phase, the cost estimate is mainly proposed to the project owner for the CAPEX approval. The estimation practice are included the deterministic in concept selection phase included 2 alternative options. Second project phase, the cost estimate is more accurate and the information for estimate is more available because the execution of the engineering specification and procurement packages are already defined. Moreover, in this project phase, the probabilistic in risk quantification are applied in simulation the uncertainty of cost magnitude. The results show that theses 2 phases of Aroma oil field cost estimate can be compared in the early phase and also can plot scenario for cost uncertainty in lower magnitude in later phase. The owner company can adjust the contingency based on policy or the project constrains which is benefit for the investment strategy as the engineering contractor proposed. |
Year | 2015 |
School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
Academic Program/FoS | Offshore Technology and Management (OTM) |
Chairperson(s) | Chiu, Gregory L. F. ; |
Examination Committee(s) | Boswell, Laurie F. ;Sarunphong Articharte ; |