Development of a vehicle population model using the system dynamic approach for on-road particulate matter emission projection in Sri Lanka | |
| Author | Attanayake, Rashminda |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.EV-19-26 |
| Subject(s) | Air--Pollution--Sri Lanka Carbon monoxide--Environmental aspects--Sri Lanka Automobiles--Sri Lanka--Air quality |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Environmental Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Sri Lankan road transport sector is growing rapidly in the recent years, and it is one of the major anthropogenic sources of air pollution in Sri Lanka which leads to a rapid deterioration of air quality. Currently, there is no accurate, detailed and updated assessment of on-road vehicle emissions in Sri Lanka. Accurate emission estimates are critical in assessing the actual magnitudes of the problem for better air quality management. This study developed annual PM10 emission inventory for on-road transport sector in Sri Lanka for the next 20 years based on four fuel consumption scenarios developed by the SAARC Energy Center. A vehicle population and emission model was developed using system dynamic approach to project the long term PM10 emissions. This model is suitable for estimating emissions for Sri Lanka since it incorporates vehicle type, technology, and age information which are specific for the country. For the next 20 years, PM10 emission projection showed a decreasing trend despite an increase in fuel consumption under all scenarios due to an implementation of tighter emission standards and the retirement of older vehicles with no emission regulations. At the end of 2040, total annual PM10 emissions under the Business-As-Usual (BAU), Compressed Natural Gas and Electricity Conversion (GASELEC), Energy Efficient Systems and Technologies (EFFTECH), and Mass Transport (MASSTRANS) scenarios were 1.3, 0.7.0.8, and 0.7 ktons respectively. Different future policies assumed in GASELEC, EFFTECH, and MASSTRANS scenarios have the same effect on PM10 emission reduction. However, by following these three scenarios, emissions can be reduced by 40% with respect to the BAU scenario. If the EURO IV standard was implemented in 2020, Sri Lanka would be able to achieve significant emission reductions at the end of 2040. If the standard was delayed until 2040, emissions would increase by around 65%. Thus, timing of emission standards was crucial in mitigating vehicle emissions in Sri Lanka. The major sources of on-road PM10 emissions were diesel goods transport vehicles followed by diesel motor cars and diesel buses. Slow retirement rates of vehicles allowed old vehicles with higher emission to remain on the road longer, resulting in significant contribution of no emission control regulations and aged over 20 years old vehicles. The results of this study can be used to evaluate the current and future trend of on-road vehicle emissions in Sri Lanka. In addition, critical polluters can be identified to prioritize pollution control efforts. The model can be simulated to analyze and evaluate the anticipated effects of future emission control strategies. |
| Year | 2019 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Environmental Engineering and Management (EV) |
| Chairperson(s) | Ekbordin Winijkul; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Visvanathan, C.;Shipin, Oleg V.; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2019 |