Evaluation of climate change impact and adaptation strategies for cotton cultivation in faisalabad, Pakistan | |
| Author | Tariq, Usman |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-19-31 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Pakistan--Faisalabad Crops and climate--Pakistan--Faisalabad Cotton growing--Pakistan--Faisalabad |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Globally, climate change is the main concern with regard to its impacts on agriculture production, human society, and water resource security. District Faisalabad is one of the districts in Punjab, Pakistan where cotton production and cultivated land is decreasing with time. So, it is very important to investigate those factors which play a key role in cotton yield reduction in the study area and select the suitable adaptations to sustain cotton yield by using DSSAT v 4.6 model. This study assesses the climate change impact and outcomes of three adaption strategies (change in planting date, change in irrigation amount and change in Nitrogen fertilizer amount) for cotton cultivation in Faisalabad District of Punjab, Pakistan. Future climate projected by using three regional climate models (RCMs); RegCM4.4, RCA4, and ACCESS-CSIROCCAM under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) for threetime windows; 2020s (2020-2049),2050s (2049-2074), and 2080s (2075-2099). A linear scaling bias correction technique was used to remove the biases for RCMs. DSSAT v 4.6 model was used to simulate the cotton yield under present and future condition. Three adaptation strategies change in planting date, change in the amount of irrigation and change in fertilizer application was used to minimize the negative impact of climate change on cotton crop. The maximum temperature of the District Faisalabad is expected to rise 2.3℃ under RCP 4.5 scenario and 4.3℃ under RCP 8.5 scenario. The minimum temperature is projected to increase 2.6℃ under RCP 4.5 scenario and 4.7℃ under RCP 8.5 scenario. The annual rainfall is projected to increase 45% under RCP 4.5 and by 102% under RCP 8.5. DSSAT v 4.6 model was used to simulate the cotton yield under the present condition and its performance is very good during the evaluation of seed cotton yield and different phenological stages as compared with field data. Seed cotton yield will decrease by 10% in the RCP 4.5 scenario and 23% under RCP8.5 scenarios. Late planting (20-June) minimizes yield reduction losses by -1.4% to -3.3%, irrigation amount 450mm/ha minimizes yield reduction losses by -1.4% to -3.3%, and increase in Nitrogen fertilizer application 198kg/ha increases cotton yield by 17% to 22% for 2080s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. This study concludes that rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature of the District Faisalabad is expected to increase in future. The cotton yield will be decreased in 2080s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Adaption strategies late planting (20-June), irrigation amount 450mm/ha and increase in Nitrogen fertilizer 198kg/ha can be beneficial for cotton cultivation under climate change scenarios in Faisalabad District of Punjab, Pakistan. |
| Year | 2019 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Babel, Mukand Singh |
| Examination Committee(s) | Datta, Avishek;Ekasit Kositsakulchai; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | World Bank;Punjab Agriculture Department, Pakistan; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2019 |