Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change, land use change and abstraction scenarios in Lahore, Pakistan | |
| Author | Aslam, Rana Ammar |
| Call Number | AIT Diss no.WM-20-01 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Pakistan--Lahore Groundwater|xPollution--Pakistan--Lahore Land use--Pakistan--Lahore |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. WM-20-01 |
| Abstract | Urban aquifers are facing increasing pressure from climate change, land use change and abstraction, altering groundwater levels and threatening sustainable water consumption availability and utilisation. Therefore, this study projects future changes of climate, land use and abstraction, while analysing the vulnerability of groundwater levels to such changes and formulating adaptation options to decrease the vulnerability of groundwater resources in Lahore. The objectives are achieved using modelling and qualitative approaches. The results show an increase in mean and extreme climate characteristics under climate change scenarios. The warm and wet extremes are projected to increase (significant at P=5%) under medium (RCP 4.5) and high end (RCP 8.5) scenarios. Annual changes in all climate indices will be significant except for the warm spell duration index. Land use projections show increased built-up in land use type from 965 to 3716 km2 and 3329 km2 under RlSl and R2S2 scenarios (significant atP=5%). The built-up land use will dominate agriculture land use in the future. The future population will increase (significant atP=5%) from 6.4 M to 24.6, 27.5 and 28.7 M under SSPl, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios, respectively. The vulnerability of urban areas will increase in the future consequent to the high negative impact and low adaptive capacity under combined scenarios. Agriculture and surrounding areas will remain less vulnerable in the future under combined scenarios due to the low negative impact and medium adaptive capacity. The results of this study may help groundwater experts and related institutions to understand the potential situation of groundwater resources in Lahore and formulate adaptation strategies to counteract diminishing groundwater resources in the area. |
| Year | 2020 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. WM-20-01 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Due Hoang Nguyen; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Pal, Indrajit;Sarawut Ninsawat;Basharat, Muhammad; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan; |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph. D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2020 |