1 AIT Asian Institute of Technology

A Bayesian network model for computing the probability of conflict in air traffic trajectory

AuthorSomchai Kitisrivoraphan
Call NumberAIT RSPR no. IM-01-08
Subject(s)Aeronautical Radio of Thailand

NoteA research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of engineering, School of Advanced Technologies
PublisherAsian Institute of Technology
Series StatementResearch studies project report ; no. IM-01-08
AbstractBayesian belief networks have proven to be an effective technique for representing and reasoning with uncertain knowledge. A Bayesian network is a graphical representation of a probability distribution. Therefore statistical techniques can be used to construct Bayesian networks from data. This research presents a Bayesian network model for Air traffic trajectory conflict. The purpose of the research is to aid the air traffic controller to control the aircraft. When the air traffic is busy, the air traffic controller on the ground has a short time to consider the situation for avoid air traffic conflict and must decide how to suggest the pilot on the aircraft. However, it has many variables, which must be considered for safety such as weather, type of fly and number of engines. Therefore, the Bayesian network was built to estimate the air traffic conflict in trajectory based on many variables, which concern air traffic environment and the controller knows at that time. In this research, the Bayesian network model was built using eleven variables. A user interface was constructed that permits the user to enter events and then the response suggests the probability of the damage for the air traffic conflict. The user interface is domain specific and does not require the user to have any knowledge of Bayesian networks. Empirical evaluation shows the model to have 77.19 % accuracy when evaluated on a database of 3,697 cases.
Year2001
Corresponding Series Added EntryAsian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. IM-01-08
TypeResearch Study Project Report (RSPR)
SchoolSchool of Advanced Technologies (SAT)
DepartmentDepartment of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT)
Academic Program/FoSInformation Management (IM)
Chairperson(s)Haddawy, Peter;
Examination Committee(s)Batanov, Dentcho N. ;Dung, Phan Minh ;
Scholarship Donor(s)Aeronautical Radio of Thailand ;
DegreeResearch Studies Project Report (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2001


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