Electricity demand forecasting and least cost generation expansion planning case of Bhutan | |
| Author | Dorji, Thinley |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. ET-02-6 |
| Subject(s) | Electricity Electric power consumption--Bhutan--Forecasting |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements of degree of Masters of Engineering. School of Environment Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. ET-02-6 |
| Abstract | The study deals with the forecasting of electricity demand of Bhutan for the short-term, medium-term and long-term of different sectors of the economy using times series method and econometric methods. The twelve month forecast (short-term) is estimated with the use of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The medium term electricity demand estimation is obtained with the use of Linear Moving Average method. The long term forecast is generated with the econometric method. The short, medium and long term electricity demand forecast are estimated for domestic, commercial and Government sector, industry and other sectors. It was found that the growth rate was higher for commercial and Government sector in the short term and medium term at the rate of 6% per annum and 12% per annum and industry in the long term at the rate of 10% per annum. Also, the total electricity demand and peak load growth rate would be 9% and 8% per annum respectively. The long run price and income elasticity for the electricity demand was found to be -1.3 and 1.10 for Bhutan. However, the corresponding figure in the bulk and public lighting and industry was lower (-0.77) for price and higher in income (1.96). Similarly, the price and income elasticity was low for residential sector. The generation planning considering hydropower candidates only and hydropower and thermal candidates for the domestic market showed that the latter would be attractive. The Long Run Average Cost and Average Incremental Cost in the case of consideration of only hydropower candidates were observed to be 2.02 Cents/kWh and 4.85 Cents/kWh at 10% discount rate respectively. In the case of consideration of both hydropower and Thermal plant candidates the Long Run Average Cost and Average Incremental Cost were observed to be 1.86 Cents/kWh and 3.09Cents/kWh respectively |
| Year | 2002 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology.|tThesis ;|vno. ET-02-6 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, R.M. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Islam, Nazural ;Weerakorn Ongsakul ;Bhattacharrya, S.C. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of Austria |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2002 |