| Author | Sharma, Khageswar |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. ET-01-5 |
| Subject(s) | Power resources--Econometric models
|
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The specific objective of the study was to investigate the relationships between
aggregate energy requirements, different categories of energy consumption, C02 emissions
with economic output and demand for diesel, gasoline and electricity using the
cointegration technique for the econometric analysis.
The causality effect indicates mixed relationships between different categories of
fuel and economic output for countries at different stags of development. The causal
effects run from both electricity and oil to GDP for China, India implying its growth policy
would enhance economic growth; vice versa for Pakistan and Thailand for electricity and
with feed back effects for Malaysia for electricity and oil for Thailand. The newly
emerging economies of Korea, Singapore and Philippines indicate no effects for electricity
and oil. Coal Granger causes GDP for all the countries with feed back effect for India,
Korea and Philippines except for the non-importing and exporting countries. Curtailing its
consumption running from energy to GDP would have an affect on the economic growth.
The neutral relationship gives more scope for drastic energy conservation measure without
adverse impacts on economic growth.
The diesel and electricity demand was price inelastic and over pricing may not
effect conservation given the present trend. The price was more elastic for gasoline than
diesel and the consumption can be controlled by taxes. The income was elastic for all the
categories of energy demand and more than unity except for few countries for gasoline.
The estimate indicates that the relationships between C02 emissions and economic
output consistent results whether economic out are measured at market exchange rate or
purchasing power parity basis for the larger economies and single indexing of emissions
for each country would be controversial as the size and development stage of the
economies are different. The indexing to variables would be better suited for the larger
economies than smaller ones. There exist long-term equilibrium for the variables of C02
emissions per capita and income at MER and PPP for China, India, Philippines and
Thailand even with the GDP term showed similar results.
The hypothesis of diminishing returns to scale of energy use was accepted for most
countries but rejected for few countries while considering the commercial fuels only. The
analysis was done for individual countries rather than on pooled cross-countries data. Even
for some industrialized countries showed trend of diminishing returns to energy use.
The price and income elasticity was found different for Btu and Divisia methods of
energy aggregation using the same functional forms. The causality effects between income,
price and aggregate requirement based on weighted average methods of aggregation
indicates price and energy Granger causes income for India and Korea and price having
additional effects on energy consumption for the latter and Taiwan. Unidirectional effects
were detected from income to energy for Malaysia and vice versa for Philippines. The
effect implies that given a shock to the system, the variables will affect the other in the
long run. Energy growth policy would lead to economic growth for Philippines, Korea and
India and vice versa for Malaysia and more scope exists for energy conservation without
adverse effect on economic output for Taiwan and Malaysia. |
| Year | 2001 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram M. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Lefevre, Thierry;Shivakoti, G. P. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of Japan |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2001 |