Electricity demand forecasting in Indonesia : a case study of Java-Madura-Bali (JaMaLi) Islands | |
| Author | Bayu Aji Bawono |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no.ET-04-02 |
| Subject(s) | Electricity Electric power consumption--Indonesia--Forecasting Demand-side management (Electric utilities)--Indonesia |
| Note | A research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Research studies project report ; no. ET-04-02 |
| Abstract | This study deals with the forecasting of electricity demand in Java, Madura and Bali islands (JaMaLi) for the period of 2005 until 2020. The Java, Madura and Bali is an interconnected of electricity supply system. The forecasting of electricity in the JaMaLi system composed of residential, industrial, and commercial sectors as well as the peak load of the system. In this research the analysis of regression is applied with the ten (10) year time-series data. The updated information about the electricity condition in Indonesia especially in JaMaLi system is available as introduction to elaborate the condition of electricity sector in Indonesia at present. The past and recent regulations that more important and may attractive to the investor also described as briefly. The generic and simple method for demand of electricity forecasting in Indonesia was presented which is based from the information gathered from the Institute for training in electric power planning at the PLN head office in Jaka1ta, Indonesia. Four types of model such as: linear, log-linear, lag, and linear model have been used to build an equation to forecast the electricity demand. However, only two (2) independent variables for each sector which was influenced to the electricity demand forecast in JaMaLi system. This research study is comply of proven with the research which has been done by HCA in the same topic that price of electricity does not influenced in the forecasting of electricity demand in the future. The researcher has also made a comparative outcome between the results of this study with the forecast done by the Indonesian utility, PLN. It is shown that the result of forecasting of the researcher is very closed to the forecasting done by PLN. However, there is slight different between the two results, the reason may be there is different variable which is used in the model and the base of population number is different. PLN as a commercial agent always used very optimistic assumptions in forecasting of the electricity demand in JaMaLi. While the researcher made assumptions in moderate number and other situational consideration such as the delayed of many new constructions in the country and the slow progress of the economic recovery from the crisis several years ago. The general conclusion is that the electricity tariff does not affect the electricity demand forecast in all consumer sectors, but in the commercial sector the tariff changes is a bit affect to the rate of consumption. Further studies are suggested based on the precise variables and expanding to other islands as well as to compare with other modeling software which will be used for electricity demand forecasting in the newly interconnected system covered JaMaLi and Sumatra islands. |
| Year | 2004 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. ET-04-02 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram Manohar |
| Examination Committee(s) | Nadarajah Mithulananthan;Sharma, Sudhir |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | AIT-Fellowship (partial) |
| Degree | Research report (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2004 |