Application of neuro-fuzzy networks to forecast cost and duration variance for building projects in Vietnam | |
| Author | Pham Hiep Luc |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.CM-07-5 |
| Subject(s) | Risk management--Vietnam Architecture--Vietnam--Cost effectiveness Construction industry--Vietnam--Cost effectiveness |
| Note | A thesis submitted in pa11ial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Construction, Engineering and Infrastructure Management. |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. CM-07-5 |
| Abstract | The importance of decision making in time and cost estimation for investment processes points to a need for an estimation tool for owners, designers and project managers. This research is aimed to explore the applications of neuron-fuzzy network technology in project risk analysis and to develop models to predict cost and time variances at the front end stage of building projects. Seventy finished building projects in Vietnam replied by the respondents were used for training and testing the model. Important risk factors at the front end stage are determined by respondents' ranking. To develop the neuro-fuzzy network model, forward stepwise selection technique was used to identify input sets. Different number of data was being used to train the model. The results of neuro- fuzzy network models were superior to conventional technique (such as multiple linear regression) and neural network models in the prediction of project cost and time variations. Moreover, the result showed that using forward stepwise technique to determine the input set for the model is better than respondent's perception. One proposed program written by Visual Basic Macro language was conducted in order try to interpret the results with practitioners. |
| Year | 2007 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. CM-07-5 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Construction Engineering and Infrastructure Management (CM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Ogunlana, Stephen 0.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Hadikusumo, Bonaventura H. W.;Giao, Pham Huy; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2007 |