Modeling the occurence of the short-shipped in air cargo | |
| Author | Ekachai Phoosanabhongs |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.TE-04-03 |
| Subject(s) | Aeronautics, Commercial--Freight Aeronautics, Commercial--Passenger traffic |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Civil Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. TE-04-03 |
| Abstract | An airlines flights are generally intended to carry passengers rather than cargo. Nevertheless, cargo has become a by-product of an airlines operation. When problems relating to weight and balance requirements occur, the cargo is the first to be unloaded, since unlike passengers cargo does not complain. This is called the short-shipped; the consignments that had been expected to be sent from the specific terminal to the destination on a selected flight, but have not been loaded for onward delivery. The arrangements of traffic load; for passengers, their baggage and cargo transported by operated aircrafts are managed for several hours or days before departure by load controllers. Their responsibility is to distribute the loads and also check whether the aircraft is in balance and within weight limitations. If not, the load controllers will decide to unload some loads. Consequently, often the cargo is unloaded. Passengers, baggage and fuel play the important factors affecting the weight of cargo contained in particular flights. Variability and uncertainty of these factors induce the occurrence of short-shipped. The ability to cope with variability and uncertainty of these factors is a key issue to designate the problem in advance. This study is aimed to estimate the occurrence of the short-shipped so as to assist decisionmakers i.e. load controllers in avoiding the problems beforehand. All possible occurrences of parameters regarded, underload, Zero Fuel Weight (ZFW) and Loaded Index Zero Fuel Weight (LIZFW), should be revealed to them. Therefore, they can judge how much should be the weight of cargo to be assigned to load in an operating aircraft without occurring short-shipped. All these parameters can be used as the indicators to monitor the occurrence of short-shipped. The simulation-model for aircraft weight and balance calculations was developed to generate the probability distributions of parameters involved. The simulationmodel for the flights departure from Bangkok to London, Seoul and Hong Kong were undertaken as the case studies of this thesis. Risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation is the basis for applying the variability and the uncertainty of factors involved to model. The developed simulation-model played a significant role in estimating the occurrence of short-shipped, although some factors inducing the occurrence of short-shipped were not modeled well. On the average, the developed simulation-model missed the prediction regarding underload of 146, -499 and -39 kilograms, ZFW of 239, 499 and 135 kilograms, and LIZFW of -0.1, 0.8 and -2.3 for London, Seoul and Hong Kong cases respectively. |
| Year | 2005 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. TE-04-03 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Civil Engineering |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Transportation Engineering (TE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Hanaoka, Shinya; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Yordphol Tanaboriboon;Pannapa Herabat; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Royal Thai Government Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2005 |