Evacuation behavioral analysis for tsunami disaster : transportation disaster response | |
| Author | Thai Charnkol |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.TE-05-03 |
| Subject(s) | Natural disasters--Thailand Tsunamis--Thailand Emergency management--Thailand |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering in Transportation Engineering, School of Civil Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. TE-05-03 |
| Abstract | The main purpose of this research study was to develop a systematic analysis for evacuation behavior, which is one step of transportation disaster planning. This analysis determined the expected response of the population threatened by tsunami disaster. The data was collected from two affected areas, Phuket and Phang-nga, Thailand. A major population evacuation in affected area was classified as evacuees generally comprised of permanent residents and transients, such tourist, business people and laborer. These two populations have to address separately, since their behavior and socioeconomic characteristics are likely to be different. Therefore, this study focused on both permanent residents and transients. Preparation and response for evacuation was examined using statistical analysis. The patterns of response obtained from samples were compared using arithmetic calculation and nonparametric statistic tests. Preparation and response curves, which represent the time at which the evacuees are expected to begin their evacuation, were estimated and compared among those of permanent residents and transients. The quantitative models of evacuation behavior were developed to gain some insights in human response to future tsunami warnings, specifically in determining evacuee's response patterns under various conditions 'based on December 26, 2004 tsunami disaster. Consequently, permanent resident's and transient's behaviors and their backgrounds, hypothetically affecting their tsunami evacuation were investigated using logistic regression technique to estimate the likelihood of evacuee being involved in each response group. An application of transportation modeling was conducted in order to estimate realistically major population evacuation. Trip generation sub-model was developed using the combination of two techniques. The linear regression analysis was applied for permanent resident trip generation model, whereas the application of time-series analysis techniques; namely Triple Exponential Smoothing Method (Holt-Winters Technique) was performed in order to predict the number of arrivals from various nations to the study area as transient evacuees. Furthermore, the evacuee behaviors affecting the shelter choices for future disaster were investigated in destination selection sub-model using the logistic regression model in estimating the probability of evacuee choice of selecting evacuation destinations between public and private shelters. Not only the socio-economic factors that affect the selection decisions were presented, but this study also analyzed the shelter attributes based on evacuee's perceptions. These perceptions are expected to influence evacuee's preferences among different alternatives. Results of the shelter allocation study revealed that the shelter demand estimation does not provide only information for shelter requirement and shelter space but it can also be used to plan for emergency materials needed |
| Year | 2006 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. TE-05-03 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Civil Engineering |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Transportation Engineering (TE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Hanaoka, Shinya; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Tripathi, Nitin Kumar;Kunnawee Kanitpong;Imamura, Fumihiko; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | RTG Fellowship; |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2005 |