A prediction of the bidding price in the electricity market | |
| Author | Luong The Ngoc |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no.IM-06-03 |
| Subject(s) | Electricity--Marketing--Forecasting Electricity--Prices--Forecasting |
| Note | A research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Research studies project report ; no. IM-06-03 |
| Abstract | A prediction of the electricity prices is becoming increasingly important to producers and consumers in the new competitive electricity markets. Both for short-term and long-term contracts, the prediction of the electricity prices is necessary to develop bidding strategies and negotiation skills in order to maximize benefit. This research study provides three methods to predict next-day electricity prices: Dynamic regression (DR), seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Transfer function (TF) models. The three procedures are based on the time series analysis techniques. The Dynamic Regression model relates the current price to the values of past prices. The ARIMA model relates current prices to the values of past prices, and current error terms to previous errors. Finally, the Transfer Function model relates the current price to the values of present and past prices and demands. Real world case studies from the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland electricity market are presented to illustrate and compare the predictive behavior of the models |
| Year | 2006 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. IM-06-03 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Information Management (IM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Vatcharapom Esichaikul; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Phan Minh Dung;Janecek, Paul; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Electricity of Vietnam (EVN); |
| Degree | Research Studies Project Report (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2006 |