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A study of the current tools/methodologies used for country risk assessment | |
Author | Ghosh, Amit Kumar |
Call Number | AIT RSPR no.SM-05-108 |
Subject(s) | Risk assessment |
Note | A research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business and Administration, School of Management |
Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
Series Statement | Research studies project report ; no. SM-05-108 |
Abstract | International investors are increasingly relying on country risk data to better gauge business opportunities and foresee major crises in increasingly volatile emerging markets. Accurately evaluating the exposure to sovereign risk and assessing the quality of governance in emerging market economies and developing countries have become critical tasks for country risk rating agencies, international investment banks and multilateral financial institutions and more importantly for the business community. Risk rating institutions (like Moody's, S&P, and Euromoney) provide an independent analysis of country risk and a consistent method of risk assessment. These rating agencies combine a range of qualitative and quantitative information regarding alternative measures of political, economic and financial risk into associated composite risk ratings. However among the major findings, it is seen that most agencies do not give out their rating methodologies, for competitive reasons. And also most ratings agencies have failed to anticipate these financial crises in time, giving rise to credibility to the ratings they dish out. When considering an investment abroad, it is essential that managers do not blindly follow the general consensus, they must take into account the various forecasts by different agencies, but they should also be objective enough not to follow them blindly and should derive their own evaluations. In conclusion it has been found that the country ratings from most rating agencies, are skewed to cater to big financial Institutions, and big credit agencies like IMF, World Bank etc. Most ratings are not investment/Investor specific, though a few of them do give a sectoral analysis, and some of these rating agencies also have fee based services from where the investors can have a more specific risk assessment for their business And in particular for the investing community, a few techniques-tools have been identified that may help them in a personalized, narrowed down, "Country risk assessment" |
Year | 2005 |
Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology.|tResearch studies project report ; no. SM-05-108 |
Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
School | School of Management (SOM) |
Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
Academic Program/FoS | Master of Business Administration (MBA) (Publication code=SM) |
Chairperson(s) | Tang, John C.S. |
Examination Committee(s) | Singha Chiamsiri; Amoussou-Guenou, Roland |
Scholarship Donor(s) | AIT Fellowship |
Degree | Research report (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2005 |