Risk-based deterioration models for flexible pavement life-cycle cost analysis | |
| Author | Pruttipong Apivatanagul |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.TE-01-06 |
| Subject(s) | Pavements, Flexible--Costs Risk assessment |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Civil Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. TE-01-06 |
| Abstract | In Pavement Management System (PMS), Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is an economic tool to estimate total costs in the pavement life. Deterioration model is used to predict pavement condition for pavement planning purpose. Economic evaluation indices are calculated to represent total costs in the analysis period. However, in current practice, LCCA doesn't include uncertainty which conceals in every predicted components such as the variations of agency costs, traffic volume, and pavement condition. In this study, risk analysis is used to solve this drawback and is integrated into LCCA by considering the uncertainty of pavement condition. The risk-based deterioration model is constructed in order to capture uncertainty within the pavement condition. The Morte Carlo simulation technique is used to develop risk-based deterioration models. The developed risk-based deterioration model is validated by comparing with average pavement condition, regression deterioration models, and Markov models. The validated results show that risk-based deterioration models are reliable. The developed risk-based deterioration model is then integrated into LCCA. Three case studies are presented in order to exemplify the application of the developed risk-based deterioration models and the developed risk-based LCCA. The economic evaluation index probability distribution developed by risk-based LCCA reveals all possible economic evaluation indexes. The result of risk-based LCCA is used to achieve the optimal budget planning. |
| Year | 2002 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. TE-01-06 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Civil Engineering |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Transportation Engineering (TE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Pannapa Herabat; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Yordphol Tanaboriboon ;Sano, Kazushi ;Park, Dongjoo; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | RTG Fellowship 3 Terms ; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2002 |