Optimal transportation infrastructure investment timing with uncertainty | |
| Author | Surachet Pravinvongvuth |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.TE-00-02 |
| Subject(s) | Transportation--Research Infrastructure (Economics) |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Civil Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. TE-00-02 |
| Abstract | This thesis is motivated by a concern that the cunent economic evaluation for the transportation infrastructure investment does not adequately consider the timing of investments. The conventional economic evaluation procedure considers only built-now alternative by comparing evaluation index of each characteristic alternative at the same designed year. Another deficiency of the conventional transportation investment evaluation method is that it does not properly capture and take into account the unce1iainty of the evaluation indices. The objective of this study is to propose a transportation infrastructure evaluation framework which takes into account not only the optimal investment timing but also the uncertainty of benefits and costs. Monte Carlo simulation technique is utilized to capture the probability density function of evaluation index. The results from the proposed approach which are stochastic values would give the decision maker a complete picture of all the possible outcomes. In addition, the proposed approach provides more than a table of results of a wide range of the components which is obtained from a common sensitivity analysis. The proposed approach is demonstrated with a transportation infrastructure project in Bangkok, Thailand. The output of the project is not only whether it should be implemented, but also when it should be. |
| Year | 2001 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. TE-00-02 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Civil Engineering |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Transportation Engineering (TE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Dongjoo Park; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Yordphol Tanaboriboon;Pannapa Herabat;Takahashi, Kiyoshi; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Partial Scholarship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2001 |