| Author | Thanh Obmalay |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no. SM-98-13 |
| Subject(s) | Sales forecasting--Laos
|
| Note | Memoire de recherche soum1s pour l'obtention du diplOme de Master of Business
Administration, School of Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The forecasts are projections that are based on the flow pattern of past figures. These are
highly important tools for management and line personnel in their daily course of activities and
decision making.
The purpose of this research is to show managers in Lao companies some of the methods
which may help them to improve their forecasts.
This research follows three main principles: first, that the level of mathematics and statistics
has been kept to that considered as appropriate to people whose interest is in obtaining forecasts for
practical purpose. Secondly, that the emphasis is on the simpler and more widely used procedures,
with some modifications provided that the level of precision must be satisfactory, using sales data
of LAO BREWERY CO., LTD as the case study. The third principle is the critical approach that is
essential in selecting the most suitable method from the many which are available.
The test of data shows that the past sales figures of LAO BREWERY CO., LTD behave
randomly with an upward trend, and have no seasonality.
The direct use of Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Linear Regression is
inefficient because they cannot keep track of the presence of randomness. The corrected methods
suggested in this research seem to give good results.
Holt-Winters, Decomposition, and Box-Jenkins methods are not recommended due to their
complexities and seem not accessible to Lao managers' skills.
The research has dealt with short-term forecasts and time senes, while the long-term
forecasts and causal methods have not been taken into account. |
| Year | 1998 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Management (SOM) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Master of Business Administration (MBA) (Publication code=SM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Gupta, Jyoti P. ; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Speece, Mark W. ;Lefevre, Thierry; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government France ; |
| Degree | Research Studies Project Report (M.B.A.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1998 |